The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Karen Bass holds the strongest position in the June 2 nonpartisan primary for Los Angeles mayor, backed by recent polling that shows her support rising to around 30 percent among likely voters while challengers trail. Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt has surged sharply in the same surveys, reaching 22 percent by tapping into voter frustration over homelessness, wildfire response, and public safety following last year’s Palisades fire. City Councilmember Nithya Raman sits close behind at roughly 20 percent, drawing from progressive voters and capitalizing on criticism of city governance. A recent debate highlighted sharp exchanges among the three leading candidates on these core municipal issues, contributing to a sharp drop in undecided voters. Traders appear to price Bass as the clear favorite to advance and ultimately prevail, yet they assign substantial probability to a runoff scenario involving Pratt or Raman amid persistent concerns about city performance.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Incumbent Karen Bass holds the strongest position in the June 2 nonpartisan primary for Los Angeles mayor, backed by recent polling that shows her support rising to around 30 percent among likely voters while challengers trail. Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt has surged sharply in the same surveys, reaching 22 percent by tapping into voter frustration over homelessness, wildfire response, and public safety following last year’s Palisades fire. City Councilmember Nithya Raman sits close behind at roughly 20 percent, drawing from progressive voters and capitalizing on criticism of city governance. A recent debate highlighted sharp exchanges among the three leading candidates on these core municipal issues, contributing to a sharp drop in undecided voters. Traders appear to price Bass as the clear favorite to advance and ultimately prevail, yet they assign substantial probability to a runoff scenario involving Pratt or Raman amid persistent concerns about city performance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 10 2026
U-Haul truck drives into crowd at Los Angeles anti-Iranian regime protest
Karen Bass surges to 53%23%
A U-Haul truck drove into a crowd of demonstrators at an anti-Iranian regime rally in Los Angeles, causing chaos and leading to the driver's arrest. Mayor Karen Bass spoke at the scene, calling for peaceful protest. This incident drew media attention and may have influenced voter sentiment on public safety and leadership.
May 5 2026
Karen Bass’s support surges amid final campaign push before primary
Karen Bass surges to 53%26%
In early May, Karen Bass’s market price surged significantly, reflecting renewed voter confidence or campaign momentum ahead of the June 2 primary election.
Apr 5 2026
Mayor Bass receives endorsement from local labor unions amid fire controversy
Karen Bass jumps to 38%8%
AP reported that several labor groups publicly backed Bass in early April, temporarily stabilizing her price, which rose from 30% on Apr 2 to 38% on Apr 5 before falling again.
Mar 24 2026
Los Angeles City Council delays zoning overhaul to comply with state housing law
Karen Bass plunges to 28%15%
The city council voted to delay zoning changes to buy more planning time under state law SB 79, reflecting local resistance to rapid housing density changes. This political maneuvering influenced perceptions of city leadership and indirectly affected mayoral race dynamics.
Feb 5 2026
Los Angeles anti-Iranian regime protest disrupted by U-Haul truck incident
Karen Bass drops to 48%8%
A U-Haul truck drove into a crowd at an anti-Iranian regime protest in Los Angeles, leading to arrests and police investigations. Mayor Karen Bass called for peaceful exercise of First Amendment rights, showing her engagement with local community issues during the campaign.
Jan 30 2026
Conservative group files lawsuit challenging LA school desegregation policy
Rae Huang plunges to 5%45%
The 1776 Project lawsuit was covered by AP, casting a partisan spotlight on city policies and coinciding with a sharp drop for Rae Huang and Asaad Alnajjar, whose prices fell to near‑zero by early February.
Jan 7 2026
One-year anniversary of Los Angeles wildfires highlights slow recovery and criticism
Karen Bass drops to 56%9%
On the anniversary of the deadly 2025 wildfires, communities mourned losses and protested the slow pace of rebuilding. Mayor Bass remained on the defensive over her handling of the fires, impacting her public support and market price.
Dec 28 2025
Adam Miller launches campaign with tech‑entrepreneur platform
Adam Miller plunges to 5%34%
AP noted Miller’s entry as a tech entrepreneur, giving him a brief surge that aligns with his price moving from 39% to 5% by Mar 12, reflecting initial enthusiasm then rapid decline.
Dec 20 2025
Nithya Raman announces late entry into mayoral race, challenging Bass
Raman’s late candidacy was reported by AP, shifting voter attention and contributing to a price drop for Bass from 63% to 56% by Dec 19 and a rise for Raman later in the window.
Dec 15 2025
Spencer Pratt’s home destroyed in Palisades fire, boosting his campaign visibility
Spencer Pratt jumps to 23%5%
Pratt’s loss of his home in the wildfire was highlighted in AP coverage, raising his name recognition and coinciding with a price rise from 18% to 23% by Jan 17, 2026.
Dec 10 2025
Mayor Karen Bass faces criticism over wildfire response and city issues
Karen Bass drops to 53%9%
Karen Bass's market price declined from 62% to 53% amid ongoing criticism of her handling of the 2025 Palisades Fire recovery and homelessness. Reports and public dissatisfaction about slow rebuilding and city management contributed to her declining support.
Dec 8 2025
Mayor Karen Bass criticized for alleged interference in fire report after Palisades wildfire
Karen Bass drops to 57%6%
AP reported that Bass’s office denied allegations she pushed to soften the LAFD after‑action report on the deadly Palisades fire, sparking public backlash and a drop in her market price from 63% to 57% on Dec 11.
Dec 8 2025
Spencer Pratt launches viral campaign targeting Mayor Bass and city dysfunction
Spencer Pratt jumps to 26%8%
Spencer Pratt announced his mayoral campaign in January 2026, but his viral videos and populist messaging against homelessness and failed leadership began gaining traction in early December 2025, boosting his market price from 18% to 26%. His campaign emphasized a hardline stance on homelessness and criticized incumbent Karen Bass's wildfire response.
Nov 23 2025
Karen Bass addresses Iranian protest in Los Angeles amid U-Haul truck incident
Karen Bass rises to 63%1%
Mayor Karen Bass spoke at an anti-Iranian regime protest in Los Angeles where a U-Haul truck drove into the crowd, causing chaos. Her presence and call for peaceful protest highlighted her leadership on community issues, slightly stabilizing her market position.
Nov 23 2025
U-Haul truck incident at Los Angeles anti-Iranian regime protest draws attention
Karen Bass dips to 62%1%
A U-Haul truck drove into a crowd during an anti-Iranian regime protest in Los Angeles, leading to arrests and heightened media coverage. Mayor Karen Bass addressed the incident, emphasizing peaceful protest rights, which kept public focus on her leadership amid ongoing city tensions.
Nov 16 2025
Los Angeles Times reports on alleged edits to fire department report amid wildfire controversy
Karen Bass drops to 65%5%
The Los Angeles Times published reports alleging that drafts of the Los Angeles Fire Department’s after-action report were edited to soften criticism of city officials, including Mayor Bass. Bass's office denied these allegations, but the controversy kept scrutiny on her wildfire response, influencing market sentiment.
Nov 15 2025
Community organizer Rae Huang challenges Mayor Bass, highlighting progressive Christian candidacy
Rae Huang, a progressive Christian pastor, entered the race challenging Karen Bass from the left, bringing new dynamics to the contest and reflecting broader political and cultural debates in Los Angeles.
Oct 18 2025
Karen Bass’s support surges after wildfire recovery efforts and public statements
Karen Bass jumps to 73%12%
Following public statements and efforts addressing wildfire recovery, Karen Bass’s market price rose significantly, reflecting increased confidence in her leadership despite ongoing challenges.
Oct 12 2025
Spencer Pratt launches viral campaign attacking Mayor Bass over wildfire response
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, whose home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, launched a populist campaign criticizing Karen Bass's leadership and wildfire response. His viral videos and hardline stance on homelessness gained attention, causing a sharp drop in Asaad Alnajjar's market price and affecting Bass's standing.
Oct 9 2025
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faces reelection challenges amid wildfire fallout
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Karen Bass's reelection campaign began under pressure due to criticism of her handling of the 2025 Palisades wildfire and related city issues. This news caused a temporary dip in her market price and a sharp drop for Asaad Alnajjar, reflecting shifting voter confidence.
Oct 9 2025
Los Angeles mayoral race begins amid wildfire fallout and homelessness crisis
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Karen Bass faced reelection challenges due to criticism over her handling of the 2025 Palisades wildfire and ongoing city issues like homelessness. New candidates including Spencer Pratt and Adam Miller entered the race, intensifying competition and impacting market perceptions of Bass's chances.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Karen Bass holds the strongest position in the June 2 nonpartisan primary for Los Angeles mayor, backed by recent polling that shows her support rising to around 30 percent among likely voters while challengers trail. Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt has surged sharply in the same surveys, reaching 22 percent by tapping into voter frustration over homelessness, wildfire response, and public safety following last year’s Palisades fire. City Councilmember Nithya Raman sits close behind at roughly 20 percent, drawing from progressive voters and capitalizing on criticism of city governance. A recent debate highlighted sharp exchanges among the three leading candidates on these core municipal issues, contributing to a sharp drop in undecided voters. Traders appear to price Bass as the clear favorite to advance and ultimately prevail, yet they assign substantial probability to a runoff scenario involving Pratt or Raman amid persistent concerns about city performance.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Incumbent Karen Bass holds the strongest position in the June 2 nonpartisan primary for Los Angeles mayor, backed by recent polling that shows her support rising to around 30 percent among likely voters while challengers trail. Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt has surged sharply in the same surveys, reaching 22 percent by tapping into voter frustration over homelessness, wildfire response, and public safety following last year’s Palisades fire. City Councilmember Nithya Raman sits close behind at roughly 20 percent, drawing from progressive voters and capitalizing on criticism of city governance. A recent debate highlighted sharp exchanges among the three leading candidates on these core municipal issues, contributing to a sharp drop in undecided voters. Traders appear to price Bass as the clear favorite to advance and ultimately prevail, yet they assign substantial probability to a runoff scenario involving Pratt or Raman amid persistent concerns about city performance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 10 2026
U-Haul truck drives into crowd at Los Angeles anti-Iranian regime protest
Karen Bass surges to 53%23%
A U-Haul truck drove into a crowd of demonstrators at an anti-Iranian regime rally in Los Angeles, causing chaos and leading to the driver's arrest. Mayor Karen Bass spoke at the scene, calling for peaceful protest. This incident drew media attention and may have influenced voter sentiment on public safety and leadership.
May 5 2026
Karen Bass’s support surges amid final campaign push before primary
Karen Bass surges to 53%26%
In early May, Karen Bass’s market price surged significantly, reflecting renewed voter confidence or campaign momentum ahead of the June 2 primary election.
Apr 5 2026
Mayor Bass receives endorsement from local labor unions amid fire controversy
Karen Bass jumps to 38%8%
AP reported that several labor groups publicly backed Bass in early April, temporarily stabilizing her price, which rose from 30% on Apr 2 to 38% on Apr 5 before falling again.
Mar 24 2026
Los Angeles City Council delays zoning overhaul to comply with state housing law
Karen Bass plunges to 28%15%
The city council voted to delay zoning changes to buy more planning time under state law SB 79, reflecting local resistance to rapid housing density changes. This political maneuvering influenced perceptions of city leadership and indirectly affected mayoral race dynamics.
Feb 5 2026
Los Angeles anti-Iranian regime protest disrupted by U-Haul truck incident
Karen Bass drops to 48%8%
A U-Haul truck drove into a crowd at an anti-Iranian regime protest in Los Angeles, leading to arrests and police investigations. Mayor Karen Bass called for peaceful exercise of First Amendment rights, showing her engagement with local community issues during the campaign.
Jan 30 2026
Conservative group files lawsuit challenging LA school desegregation policy
Rae Huang plunges to 5%45%
The 1776 Project lawsuit was covered by AP, casting a partisan spotlight on city policies and coinciding with a sharp drop for Rae Huang and Asaad Alnajjar, whose prices fell to near‑zero by early February.
Jan 7 2026
One-year anniversary of Los Angeles wildfires highlights slow recovery and criticism
Karen Bass drops to 56%9%
On the anniversary of the deadly 2025 wildfires, communities mourned losses and protested the slow pace of rebuilding. Mayor Bass remained on the defensive over her handling of the fires, impacting her public support and market price.
Dec 28 2025
Adam Miller launches campaign with tech‑entrepreneur platform
Adam Miller plunges to 5%34%
AP noted Miller’s entry as a tech entrepreneur, giving him a brief surge that aligns with his price moving from 39% to 5% by Mar 12, reflecting initial enthusiasm then rapid decline.
Dec 20 2025
Nithya Raman announces late entry into mayoral race, challenging Bass
Raman’s late candidacy was reported by AP, shifting voter attention and contributing to a price drop for Bass from 63% to 56% by Dec 19 and a rise for Raman later in the window.
Dec 15 2025
Spencer Pratt’s home destroyed in Palisades fire, boosting his campaign visibility
Spencer Pratt jumps to 23%5%
Pratt’s loss of his home in the wildfire was highlighted in AP coverage, raising his name recognition and coinciding with a price rise from 18% to 23% by Jan 17, 2026.
Dec 10 2025
Mayor Karen Bass faces criticism over wildfire response and city issues
Karen Bass drops to 53%9%
Karen Bass's market price declined from 62% to 53% amid ongoing criticism of her handling of the 2025 Palisades Fire recovery and homelessness. Reports and public dissatisfaction about slow rebuilding and city management contributed to her declining support.
Dec 8 2025
Mayor Karen Bass criticized for alleged interference in fire report after Palisades wildfire
Karen Bass drops to 57%6%
AP reported that Bass’s office denied allegations she pushed to soften the LAFD after‑action report on the deadly Palisades fire, sparking public backlash and a drop in her market price from 63% to 57% on Dec 11.
Dec 8 2025
Spencer Pratt launches viral campaign targeting Mayor Bass and city dysfunction
Spencer Pratt jumps to 26%8%
Spencer Pratt announced his mayoral campaign in January 2026, but his viral videos and populist messaging against homelessness and failed leadership began gaining traction in early December 2025, boosting his market price from 18% to 26%. His campaign emphasized a hardline stance on homelessness and criticized incumbent Karen Bass's wildfire response.
Nov 23 2025
Karen Bass addresses Iranian protest in Los Angeles amid U-Haul truck incident
Karen Bass rises to 63%1%
Mayor Karen Bass spoke at an anti-Iranian regime protest in Los Angeles where a U-Haul truck drove into the crowd, causing chaos. Her presence and call for peaceful protest highlighted her leadership on community issues, slightly stabilizing her market position.
Nov 23 2025
U-Haul truck incident at Los Angeles anti-Iranian regime protest draws attention
Karen Bass dips to 62%1%
A U-Haul truck drove into a crowd during an anti-Iranian regime protest in Los Angeles, leading to arrests and heightened media coverage. Mayor Karen Bass addressed the incident, emphasizing peaceful protest rights, which kept public focus on her leadership amid ongoing city tensions.
Nov 16 2025
Los Angeles Times reports on alleged edits to fire department report amid wildfire controversy
Karen Bass drops to 65%5%
The Los Angeles Times published reports alleging that drafts of the Los Angeles Fire Department’s after-action report were edited to soften criticism of city officials, including Mayor Bass. Bass's office denied these allegations, but the controversy kept scrutiny on her wildfire response, influencing market sentiment.
Nov 15 2025
Community organizer Rae Huang challenges Mayor Bass, highlighting progressive Christian candidacy
Rae Huang, a progressive Christian pastor, entered the race challenging Karen Bass from the left, bringing new dynamics to the contest and reflecting broader political and cultural debates in Los Angeles.
Oct 18 2025
Karen Bass’s support surges after wildfire recovery efforts and public statements
Karen Bass jumps to 73%12%
Following public statements and efforts addressing wildfire recovery, Karen Bass’s market price rose significantly, reflecting increased confidence in her leadership despite ongoing challenges.
Oct 12 2025
Spencer Pratt launches viral campaign attacking Mayor Bass over wildfire response
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, whose home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, launched a populist campaign criticizing Karen Bass's leadership and wildfire response. His viral videos and hardline stance on homelessness gained attention, causing a sharp drop in Asaad Alnajjar's market price and affecting Bass's standing.
Oct 9 2025
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faces reelection challenges amid wildfire fallout
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Karen Bass's reelection campaign began under pressure due to criticism of her handling of the 2025 Palisades wildfire and related city issues. This news caused a temporary dip in her market price and a sharp drop for Asaad Alnajjar, reflecting shifting voter confidence.
Oct 9 2025
Los Angeles mayoral race begins amid wildfire fallout and homelessness crisis
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Karen Bass faced reelection challenges due to criticism over her handling of the 2025 Palisades wildfire and ongoing city issues like homelessness. New candidates including Spencer Pratt and Adam Miller entered the race, intensifying competition and impacting market perceptions of Bass's chances.
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