Republican House primary results in the 2026 cycle produced four confirmed incumbent defeats, aligning with the market's strong consensus on the 4-6 range. Trump-backed challengers defeated Thomas Massie in Kentucky and Dan Crenshaw in Texas over policy disagreements and perceived insufficient alignment on key votes, while Andy Ogles in Tennessee and Cory Mills in Florida fell amid local controversies and spending despite endorsements in one case. These outcomes followed typical patterns of targeted challenges in a non-redistricting year, with no additional losses emerging from remaining contests or runoffs to push totals higher. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals or unresolved disputes could still alter the final count within the resolution window.