Recent primary results show a modest number of Republican House incumbents defeated for renomination, with confirmed losses including Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd, alongside additional upsets that bring the cycle total into the mid-single digits. Elevated retirements—37 Republicans declining to seek re-election—have reduced the pool of contested primaries, while remaining races feature limited high-profile challenges that have not produced widespread defeats. Trader consensus around 4-6 reflects this pattern of contained turnover outside redistricting effects and historical base rates for incumbent primary performance. Outcomes above six would require additional losses in late-summer or fall contests, whereas fewer than four would depend on no further upsets among remaining incumbents.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
4-6 92.7%
7-9 4.9%
10-12 3.3%
13-15 2.4%
$76,080 ปริมาณ
$76,080 ปริมาณ
≤3
<1%
4-6
93%
7-9
5%
10-12
3%
13-15
2%
>15
2%
4-6 92.7%
7-9 4.9%
10-12 3.3%
13-15 2.4%
$76,080 ปริมาณ
$76,080 ปริมาณ
≤3
$38,821 ปริมาณ
<1%
4-6
$19,264 ปริมาณ
93%
7-9
$6,315 ปริมาณ
5%
10-12
$5,051 ปริมาณ
3%
13-15
$3,933 ปริมาณ
2%
>15
$2,696 ปริมาณ
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent primary results show a modest number of Republican House incumbents defeated for renomination, with confirmed losses including Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd, alongside additional upsets that bring the cycle total into the mid-single digits. Elevated retirements—37 Republicans declining to seek re-election—have reduced the pool of contested primaries, while remaining races feature limited high-profile challenges that have not produced widespread defeats. Trader consensus around 4-6 reflects this pattern of contained turnover outside redistricting effects and historical base rates for incumbent primary performance. Outcomes above six would require additional losses in late-summer or fall contests, whereas fewer than four would depend on no further upsets among remaining incumbents.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$76,080ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent primary results show a modest number of Republican House incumbents defeated for renomination, with confirmed losses including Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd, alongside additional upsets that bring the cycle total into the mid-single digits. Elevated retirements—37 Republicans declining to seek re-election—have reduced the pool of contested primaries, while remaining races feature limited high-profile challenges that have not produced widespread defeats. Trader consensus around 4-6 reflects this pattern of contained turnover outside redistricting effects and historical base rates for incumbent primary performance. Outcomes above six would require additional losses in late-summer or fall contests, whereas fewer than four would depend on no further upsets among remaining incumbents.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$76,080ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent primary results show a modest number of Republican House incumbents defeated for renomination, with confirmed losses including Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd, alongside additional upsets that bring the cycle total into the mid-single digits. Elevated retirements—37 Republicans declining to seek re-election—have reduced the pool of contested primaries, while remaining races feature limited high-profile challenges that have not produced widespread defeats. Trader consensus around 4-6 reflects this pattern of contained turnover outside redistricting effects and historical base rates for incumbent primary performance. Outcomes above six would require additional losses in late-summer or fall contests, whereas fewer than four would depend on no further upsets among remaining incumbents.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
49%
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
82%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
79%
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