Early primary results, including Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s March defeat in Texas and Rep. Tony Gonzales’s withdrawal amid ethics scrutiny, have already produced several Republican House incumbent losses while redistricting and convention challenges in Utah and Kentucky keep additional races competitive. A record 36 GOP retirements have narrowed the field of at-risk incumbents to roughly 180, capping the scale of potential defeats. Traders weigh these confirmed upsets against the remaining June-through-August primaries in California, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania, where MAGA-backed challengers target perceived moderates. This balance of early turnover and a shrunken pool sustains tight odds between the 4-6 and 13-15 ranges, with further separation likely only after the next wave of nomination contests clarifies the final count.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
13-15 48.5%
>15 22.3%
10-12 1.6%
<3 <1%
$43,446 ปริมาณ
$43,446 ปริมาณ
<3
1%
4-6
38%
7-9
36%
10-12
2%
13-15
49%
>15
22%
13-15 48.5%
>15 22.3%
10-12 1.6%
<3 <1%
$43,446 ปริมาณ
$43,446 ปริมาณ
<3
$31,580 ปริมาณ
1%
4-6
$7,780 ปริมาณ
38%
7-9
$799 ปริมาณ
36%
10-12
$886 ปริมาณ
2%
13-15
$1,719 ปริมาณ
49%
>15
$683 ปริมาณ
22%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Early primary results, including Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s March defeat in Texas and Rep. Tony Gonzales’s withdrawal amid ethics scrutiny, have already produced several Republican House incumbent losses while redistricting and convention challenges in Utah and Kentucky keep additional races competitive. A record 36 GOP retirements have narrowed the field of at-risk incumbents to roughly 180, capping the scale of potential defeats. Traders weigh these confirmed upsets against the remaining June-through-August primaries in California, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania, where MAGA-backed challengers target perceived moderates. This balance of early turnover and a shrunken pool sustains tight odds between the 4-6 and 13-15 ranges, with further separation likely only after the next wave of nomination contests clarifies the final count.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$43,446ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Early primary results, including Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s March defeat in Texas and Rep. Tony Gonzales’s withdrawal amid ethics scrutiny, have already produced several Republican House incumbent losses while redistricting and convention challenges in Utah and Kentucky keep additional races competitive. A record 36 GOP retirements have narrowed the field of at-risk incumbents to roughly 180, capping the scale of potential defeats. Traders weigh these confirmed upsets against the remaining June-through-August primaries in California, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania, where MAGA-backed challengers target perceived moderates. This balance of early turnover and a shrunken pool sustains tight odds between the 4-6 and 13-15 ranges, with further separation likely only after the next wave of nomination contests clarifies the final count.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$43,446ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Early primary results, including Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s March defeat in Texas and Rep. Tony Gonzales’s withdrawal amid ethics scrutiny, have already produced several Republican House incumbent losses while redistricting and convention challenges in Utah and Kentucky keep additional races competitive. A record 36 GOP retirements have narrowed the field of at-risk incumbents to roughly 180, capping the scale of potential defeats. Traders weigh these confirmed upsets against the remaining June-through-August primaries in California, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania, where MAGA-backed challengers target perceived moderates. This balance of early turnover and a shrunken pool sustains tight odds between the 4-6 and 13-15 ranges, with further separation likely only after the next wave of nomination contests clarifies the final count.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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