Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf have severely constrained commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with AIS-visible transits averaging just 4.7 vessels daily in recent weeks versus a pre-crisis norm near 85. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has conducted repeated attacks on tankers while asserting control over northern routes and requiring permits, prompting U.S. naval coordination for limited southern-corridor movements amid mines and dual-route uncertainty. These dynamics have driven VLCC freight rates to record highs, with MEG-China benchmarks exceeding $24 per barrel as ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman surge and roughly 40% of Gulf crude now bypasses the strait via pipelines. Oil flows have partially recovered toward 13 million barrels per day, yet refined-product shipments remain sharply below baseline, sustaining elevated energy-price volatility. Key near-term catalysts include potential diplomatic pauses, further IRGC actions, and October data on tanker loadings that could shift trader assessments of sustained restrictions through month-end.