Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s western coast and Perim Island have reinforced selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels while permitting broader commercial traffic through Bab el-Mandeb, sustaining weekly transits near the 170-189 range observed in September. Suez Canal containership volumes have risen 59% since March as carriers including Maersk and MSC restore select Asia-Europe services, though many operators continue AIS-off transits or naval escorts amid elevated war-risk premia. Saudi crude loadings have fallen roughly 50% since late July, trimming overall tanker counts without shutting the corridor. With no major new attacks reported in recent days and French naval escorts averaging about 10 vessels weekly, trader consensus at 67.5% for 170-189 reflects stable, albeit reduced, throughput relative to pre-2023 norms and the limited near-term likelihood of full rerouting.
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