**Heightened Houthi-Saudi tensions and recent territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast have kept Bab el-Mandeb traffic at subdued but stable levels.** Escalation since mid-July, including the July 20 Saudi shipping ban, September seizures of Mokha and Perim Island, and strikes on energy infrastructure, has prompted many operators—particularly VLCCs and Saudi-linked tankers—to avoid or transit with AIS off, while some container lines cautiously restore Suez routings. Kpler and other tracking data show daily commodity transits recently hovering near 26–34 vessels, producing weekly totals clustered in the 170–210 range and supporting the near-even market-implied odds between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Key swing factors include the pace of dark-ship activity, any further coastal advances, and selective carrier risk tolerance ahead of the week’s close.