Recent Iranian attacks have driven elevated trader focus on successful targeting of commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. As of early October 2026, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted roughly 30 drone and 10 anti-ship missile strikes weekly since August, with at least four confirmed hits on tankers in the prior ten days and 13 vessels struck by projectiles or debris since mid-September. A Kuwaiti VLCC caught fire after a projectile strike on October 1, adding to incidents involving UAE- and other flagged tankers. AIS-visible traffic remains severely restricted at roughly 6% of pre-crisis levels, with oil flows recovering modestly under naval coordination yet subject to Iranian permit demands and exclusion-zone threats. These dynamics reflect persistent low-level disruption without full escalation, keeping market-implied odds sensitive to any new confirmed strikes or de-escalation signals.