**Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September captures of Mokha and Perim Island, have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and sustained selective pressure on Saudi-linked shipping.** This has kept daily vessel transits subdued, with tanker flows averaging roughly 8–12 per day and broader commercial traffic near 25–30 vessels daily in late September and early October 2026 data from sources such as TankerMap, IMF PortWatch, and Kpler. Traders have priced the 25–29 bucket highest (52.5%) because observed levels remain resilient above the lowest disruption troughs yet well below pre-2023 norms, reflecting carriers’ selective risk tolerance, older tonnage, and limited rerouting for non-targeted cargoes amid elevated war-risk premiums. Ongoing uncertainty around further escalation or de-escalation, combined with potential last-minute shifts in insurance terms or naval activity, supports the adjacent 20–24 range (23.0%) while capping upside into 30–34 (13.0%). The market aggregates real-capital views on these near-term maritime dynamics rather than forecasting specific resolutions.