Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98.5% implied probability for a 5°C lowest temperature in Paris on May 15, anchored by the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a morning low near 5°C at Paris-Le Bourget Airport station amid an unusual mid-May cool snap. Persistent overcast skies, scattered showers, and moderate westerly winds have suppressed radiative cooling, following similar lows around 7°C on May 14, well below the typical May average of 9–10°C. This positioning aligns with observed cold-air advection from a northern trough. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies overnight enabling drops to 4°C or brief stronger northerly gusts, though model uncertainty bands remain narrow; final observations will resolve by day's end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Paris on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 15?
5°C 98.5%
4°C 1.4%
2°C <1%
3°C <1%
$15,667 ปริมาณ
$15,667 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
-2°C or below
<1%
-1°C
1%
0°C
1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
99%
5°C 98.5%
4°C 1.4%
2°C <1%
3°C <1%
$15,667 ปริมาณ
$15,667 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
-2°C or below
$364 ปริมาณ
<1%
-1°C
$599 ปริมาณ
1%
0°C
$992 ปริมาณ
1%
1°C
$804 ปริมาณ
<1%
2°C
$793 ปริมาณ
1%
3°C
$842 ปริมาณ
1%
4°C
$935 ปริมาณ
1%
5°C
$1,802 ปริมาณ
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98.5% implied probability for a 5°C lowest temperature in Paris on May 15, anchored by the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a morning low near 5°C at Paris-Le Bourget Airport station amid an unusual mid-May cool snap. Persistent overcast skies, scattered showers, and moderate westerly winds have suppressed radiative cooling, following similar lows around 7°C on May 14, well below the typical May average of 9–10°C. This positioning aligns with observed cold-air advection from a northern trough. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies overnight enabling drops to 4°C or brief stronger northerly gusts, though model uncertainty bands remain narrow; final observations will resolve by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,667วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98.5% implied probability for a 5°C lowest temperature in Paris on May 15, anchored by the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a morning low near 5°C at Paris-Le Bourget Airport station amid an unusual mid-May cool snap. Persistent overcast skies, scattered showers, and moderate westerly winds have suppressed radiative cooling, following similar lows around 7°C on May 14, well below the typical May average of 9–10°C. This positioning aligns with observed cold-air advection from a northern trough. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies overnight enabling drops to 4°C or brief stronger northerly gusts, though model uncertainty bands remain narrow; final observations will resolve by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,667วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98.5% implied probability for a 5°C lowest temperature in Paris on May 15, anchored by the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a morning low near 5°C at Paris-Le Bourget Airport station amid an unusual mid-May cool snap. Persistent overcast skies, scattered showers, and moderate westerly winds have suppressed radiative cooling, following similar lows around 7°C on May 14, well below the typical May average of 9–10°C. This positioning aligns with observed cold-air advection from a northern trough. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies overnight enabling drops to 4°C or brief stronger northerly gusts, though model uncertainty bands remain narrow; final observations will resolve by day's end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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