The November 7, 2026, general election produced preliminary results giving the National Party 42 seats and its ACT–New Zealand First partners a combined 67 seats in the 131-seat parliament, one above the majority threshold. National’s strong electorate performance created an overhang that delivered extra seats despite a party vote nearly identical to Labour’s. With roughly 399,000 special votes still to be counted and official results due November 27, historical patterns show these ballots typically favor left-leaning parties but rarely shift enough seats to overturn a narrow majority. Trader consensus at 99.1% for National reflects this seat arithmetic and the limited realistic pathways for the Labour–Green–Te Pāti Māori bloc to reach 66 seats even with Opportunity support. A substantial late swing in specials or electorate recounts remains the primary scenario that could alter the outcome before final certification.