Giorgia Meloni’s position as incumbent prime minister of Italy’s longest-serving postwar government underpins her 50% odds, reflecting her party’s consistent lead in voting intention surveys ahead of the 2027 general election and the center-right coalition’s record of legislative stability since 2022. Recent polling shows Brothers of Italy near 27% while the broader coalition hovers around 38-40%, close to the proposed electoral reform’s 42% majority-bonus threshold, amid ongoing Senate consideration of changes to the proportional system. Challenges from Roberto Vannacci’s Futuro Nazionale, which polls near 7-8% and draws support from the right, along with the March 2026 defeat of judicial reform in a referendum, have narrowed the coalition’s edge and boosted opposition figures such as Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte. Traders price in the possibility of an early vote in spring 2027 and the need for coalition realignments before the next parliamentary formation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGiorgia Meloni 50%
Elly Schlein 14%
Giuseppe Conte 12%
Roberto Vannacci 8.5%
$82,843 ปริมาณ
$82,843 ปริมาณ
Giorgia Meloni
50%
Elly Schlein
14%
Giuseppe Conte
12%
Antonio Tajani
<1%
Matteo Salvini
<1%
Guido Crosetto
<1%
Mario Draghi
1%
Silvia Salis
8%
Roberto Vannacci
9%
Matteo Renzi
1%
Angelo Bonelli
<1%
Carlo Calenda
1%
Giorgia Meloni 50%
Elly Schlein 14%
Giuseppe Conte 12%
Roberto Vannacci 8.5%
$82,843 ปริมาณ
$82,843 ปริมาณ
Giorgia Meloni
50%
Elly Schlein
14%
Giuseppe Conte
12%
Antonio Tajani
<1%
Matteo Salvini
<1%
Guido Crosetto
<1%
Mario Draghi
1%
Silvia Salis
8%
Roberto Vannacci
9%
Matteo Renzi
1%
Angelo Bonelli
<1%
Carlo Calenda
1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Giorgia Meloni’s position as incumbent prime minister of Italy’s longest-serving postwar government underpins her 50% odds, reflecting her party’s consistent lead in voting intention surveys ahead of the 2027 general election and the center-right coalition’s record of legislative stability since 2022. Recent polling shows Brothers of Italy near 27% while the broader coalition hovers around 38-40%, close to the proposed electoral reform’s 42% majority-bonus threshold, amid ongoing Senate consideration of changes to the proportional system. Challenges from Roberto Vannacci’s Futuro Nazionale, which polls near 7-8% and draws support from the right, along with the March 2026 defeat of judicial reform in a referendum, have narrowed the coalition’s edge and boosted opposition figures such as Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte. Traders price in the possibility of an early vote in spring 2027 and the need for coalition realignments before the next parliamentary formation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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