Democrat Stefany Shaheen defeated Republican Anthony DiLorenzo in New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district on November 3, 2026, by a margin near 14 points based on nearly complete vote counts. Shaheen’s performance in the open seat previously held by Chris Pappas reflects the district’s modest Democratic lean, evidenced by recent presidential results, combined with strong turnout and campaign dynamics that produced a decisive outcome. Trader consensus prices the 10-15% Democratic margin band near 98.5% because certified totals have aligned closely with that range and early concession statements confirmed the result. Remaining uncertainty centers on final certification processes or any late adjustments in provisional or absentee ballots, though such changes would need to exceed typical historical variance to alter the band.