Midway through May 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: May" market prices "Nothing" at 83.5%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events since the market launched on April 30. None of the specified conditions—a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil exceeding $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of alien existence, or Russia invading a NATO country—have occurred amid contained geopolitical tensions. Russia-Ukraine hostilities show no NATO escalation signals, Iran's leadership remains stable under Supreme Leader Khamenei, and WTI prices linger around $80 amid steady global supply. With 17 days remaining until May 31 resolution, low escalation risks from ongoing diplomatic postures sustain the high implied probability, though sudden military developments or oil shocks could shift odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNothing Ever Happens: May
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Nothing
$83,616 ปริมาณ
$83,616 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
Nothing
$83,616 ปริมาณ
$83,616 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfMidway through May 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: May" market prices "Nothing" at 83.5%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events since the market launched on April 30. None of the specified conditions—a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil exceeding $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of alien existence, or Russia invading a NATO country—have occurred amid contained geopolitical tensions. Russia-Ukraine hostilities show no NATO escalation signals, Iran's leadership remains stable under Supreme Leader Khamenei, and WTI prices linger around $80 amid steady global supply. With 17 days remaining until May 31 resolution, low escalation risks from ongoing diplomatic postures sustain the high implied probability, though sudden military developments or oil shocks could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$83,616วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfMidway through May 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: May" market prices "Nothing" at 83.5%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events since the market launched on April 30. None of the specified conditions—a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil exceeding $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of alien existence, or Russia invading a NATO country—have occurred amid contained geopolitical tensions. Russia-Ukraine hostilities show no NATO escalation signals, Iran's leadership remains stable under Supreme Leader Khamenei, and WTI prices linger around $80 amid steady global supply. With 17 days remaining until May 31 resolution, low escalation risks from ongoing diplomatic postures sustain the high implied probability, though sudden military developments or oil shocks could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$83,616วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Midway through May 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: May" market prices "Nothing" at 83.5%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events since the market launched on April 30. None of the specified conditions—a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil exceeding $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of alien existence, or Russia invading a NATO country—have occurred amid contained geopolitical tensions. Russia-Ukraine hostilities show no NATO escalation signals, Iran's leadership remains stable under Supreme Leader Khamenei, and WTI prices linger around $80 amid steady global supply. With 17 days remaining until May 31 resolution, low escalation risks from ongoing diplomatic postures sustain the high implied probability, though sudden military developments or oil shocks could shift odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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