Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding position in the Ottawa mayoral race as the incumbent seeking a second term, with traders assigning him an 88% implied probability amid the October 26 election. His campaign has emphasized a record of economic positioning, transit investments, and housing targets while conducting more media events and targeted outreach in the final weeks. Recent debates highlighted contrasts with challengers, including three-term councillor Jeff Leiper, whose support has narrowed Sutcliffe’s earlier double-digit polling leads to single digits in late surveys from Quorus and Nanos. Lower probabilities for Neil Saravanamuttoo, Alex Lawson, and Catherine McKenney align with their limited name recognition and polling shares below 15%. Advance voting turnout and undecided voters remain variables that could influence final margins on election day.