SpaceX’s rapid V3 Starship progress, including multiple booster tower catches in early 2026 and Flight 13’s intact upper-stage splashdown with clean heat-shield data, has narrowed the gap to full reusability, yet trader consensus still prices “No” at 64 percent because neither stage has completed a closed reuse cycle. The booster reflight targeted for late 2026 and the first attempted ship tower catch on the September Flight 14 remain unproven under orbital conditions, while refurbishment timelines, regulatory approvals, and the need for repeated successful landings introduce meaningful schedule risk before year-end. These milestones, if cleared quickly, could shift sentiment, but the compressed window favors caution among traders focused on demonstrated hardware reuse rather than test-flight milestones.