Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's ongoing production ramp at Giga Texas—confirmed in the Q1 2026 earnings call and Elon's April tweets—yet focused primarily on expanding unsupervised robotaxi fleets in Austin, Dallas, Houston, and planned cities like Phoenix and Miami, rather than consumer retail sales. Absent preorders, official pricing, or nationwide regulatory approvals for driverless consumer vehicles without steering wheels or pedals, skepticism persists amid historical Tesla pricing slippage like Cybertruck and supply chain hurdles for affordable autonomy hardware. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings updates and federal NHTSA self-certification progress, with volume retail unlikely before 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$35,757 ปริมาณ
$35,757 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$35,757 ปริมาณ
$35,757 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's ongoing production ramp at Giga Texas—confirmed in the Q1 2026 earnings call and Elon's April tweets—yet focused primarily on expanding unsupervised robotaxi fleets in Austin, Dallas, Houston, and planned cities like Phoenix and Miami, rather than consumer retail sales. Absent preorders, official pricing, or nationwide regulatory approvals for driverless consumer vehicles without steering wheels or pedals, skepticism persists amid historical Tesla pricing slippage like Cybertruck and supply chain hurdles for affordable autonomy hardware. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings updates and federal NHTSA self-certification progress, with volume retail unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,757วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's ongoing production ramp at Giga Texas—confirmed in the Q1 2026 earnings call and Elon's April tweets—yet focused primarily on expanding unsupervised robotaxi fleets in Austin, Dallas, Houston, and planned cities like Phoenix and Miami, rather than consumer retail sales. Absent preorders, official pricing, or nationwide regulatory approvals for driverless consumer vehicles without steering wheels or pedals, skepticism persists amid historical Tesla pricing slippage like Cybertruck and supply chain hurdles for affordable autonomy hardware. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings updates and federal NHTSA self-certification progress, with volume retail unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,757วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's ongoing production ramp at Giga Texas—confirmed in the Q1 2026 earnings call and Elon's April tweets—yet focused primarily on expanding unsupervised robotaxi fleets in Austin, Dallas, Houston, and planned cities like Phoenix and Miami, rather than consumer retail sales. Absent preorders, official pricing, or nationwide regulatory approvals for driverless consumer vehicles without steering wheels or pedals, skepticism persists amid historical Tesla pricing slippage like Cybertruck and supply chain hurdles for affordable autonomy hardware. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings updates and federal NHTSA self-certification progress, with volume retail unlikely before 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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