Recent polling averages place the PSOE between 26% and 30% of the vote in the November 29 snap election, with the latest 40dB survey showing 29.9% after a modest recovery. This positioning reflects a narrowing gap with the PP amid voter transfers from the left and a slight PSOE rebound following the Urda train crash and the resignation of the transport minister. Persistent right-wing strength, combined with left-wing fragmentation between the new Broad Front coalition and a weakened Podemos, limits PSOE upside. The market’s concentration around the 26-30% range captures uncertainty over final campaign turnout, housing policy resonance, and whether recent PSOE gains hold through election day.