Recent polls for Spain’s November 29 snap general election place Vox support in the 17–20% range, averaging near 18.9% across multiple firms, consistent with the market’s leading 18–20% outcome. This reflects steady gains from the party’s 12.4% share in 2023, driven by voter transfers from the PP amid right-bloc consolidation and sustained base loyalty above 95% in recent surveys. Minor softening in a few trackers followed the late-October rail incident and related ministerial change, yet aggregate figures have held firm in the high teens. Traders’ pricing of the 16–18% and 20–22% bands as near-equally likely underscores the narrow band of uncertainty around these polling averages ahead of the campaign launch.