President Erdoğan's ruling People's Alliance holds roughly 321 seats in Turkey's 600-member parliament, well below the 360-vote threshold required to authorize a constitutional referendum. Recent statements from Justice Minister Akın Gürlek and President Erdoğan framing 2026 as a "year of reform" and calling for a civilian charter have revived debate, yet the opposition CHP has declined participation in talks, and the AKP's internal commission has produced no parliamentary motion. Ongoing but slow peace negotiations with the PKK have not yielded the cross-party support needed to advance the process. Traders therefore assign only a 33.5% chance that an official referendum announcement will occur before the end of 2026, reflecting the structural legislative shortfall and absence of decisive momentum in recent months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Erdoğan's ruling People's Alliance holds roughly 321 seats in Turkey's 600-member parliament, well below the 360-vote threshold required to authorize a constitutional referendum. Recent statements from Justice Minister Akın Gürlek and President Erdoğan framing 2026 as a "year of reform" and calling for a civilian charter have revived debate, yet the opposition CHP has declined participation in talks, and the AKP's internal commission has produced no parliamentary motion. Ongoing but slow peace negotiations with the PKK have not yielded the cross-party support needed to advance the process. Traders therefore assign only a 33.5% chance that an official referendum announcement will occur before the end of 2026, reflecting the structural legislative shortfall and absence of decisive momentum in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$529วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Erdoğan's ruling People's Alliance holds roughly 321 seats in Turkey's 600-member parliament, well below the 360-vote threshold required to authorize a constitutional referendum. Recent statements from Justice Minister Akın Gürlek and President Erdoğan framing 2026 as a "year of reform" and calling for a civilian charter have revived debate, yet the opposition CHP has declined participation in talks, and the AKP's internal commission has produced no parliamentary motion. Ongoing but slow peace negotiations with the PKK have not yielded the cross-party support needed to advance the process. Traders therefore assign only a 33.5% chance that an official referendum announcement will occur before the end of 2026, reflecting the structural legislative shortfall and absence of decisive momentum in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$529วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Erdoğan's ruling People's Alliance holds roughly 321 seats in Turkey's 600-member parliament, well below the 360-vote threshold required to authorize a constitutional referendum. Recent statements from Justice Minister Akın Gürlek and President Erdoğan framing 2026 as a "year of reform" and calling for a civilian charter have revived debate, yet the opposition CHP has declined participation in talks, and the AKP's internal commission has produced no parliamentary motion. Ongoing but slow peace negotiations with the PKK have not yielded the cross-party support needed to advance the process. Traders therefore assign only a 33.5% chance that an official referendum announcement will occur before the end of 2026, reflecting the structural legislative shortfall and absence of decisive momentum in recent months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย