Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP coalition controls around 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, well below the 360-vote threshold needed to send constitutional amendments to a referendum or the 400 required for direct passage. A presidential commission appointed in 2025 has continued drafting work on a new constitution, yet it has secured no meaningful cross-party support and produced no legislative timetable that would allow an official announcement before year-end. Party statements have consistently pointed to possible action in 2027 or later, aligning with the 2028 election cycle rather than an accelerated 2026 vote. Without fresh parliamentary arithmetic or an unexpected opposition breakthrough, traders assign an 86.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally announced in 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว14% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 30, 2026
14% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP coalition controls around 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, well below the 360-vote threshold needed to send constitutional amendments to a referendum or the 400 required for direct passage. A presidential commission appointed in 2025 has continued drafting work on a new constitution, yet it has secured no meaningful cross-party support and produced no legislative timetable that would allow an official announcement before year-end. Party statements have consistently pointed to possible action in 2027 or later, aligning with the 2028 election cycle rather than an accelerated 2026 vote. Without fresh parliamentary arithmetic or an unexpected opposition breakthrough, traders assign an 86.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally announced in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,734วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP coalition controls around 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, well below the 360-vote threshold needed to send constitutional amendments to a referendum or the 400 required for direct passage. A presidential commission appointed in 2025 has continued drafting work on a new constitution, yet it has secured no meaningful cross-party support and produced no legislative timetable that would allow an official announcement before year-end. Party statements have consistently pointed to possible action in 2027 or later, aligning with the 2028 election cycle rather than an accelerated 2026 vote. Without fresh parliamentary arithmetic or an unexpected opposition breakthrough, traders assign an 86.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally announced in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,734วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP coalition controls around 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, well below the 360-vote threshold needed to send constitutional amendments to a referendum or the 400 required for direct passage. A presidential commission appointed in 2025 has continued drafting work on a new constitution, yet it has secured no meaningful cross-party support and produced no legislative timetable that would allow an official announcement before year-end. Party statements have consistently pointed to possible action in 2027 or later, aligning with the 2028 election cycle rather than an accelerated 2026 vote. Without fresh parliamentary arithmetic or an unexpected opposition breakthrough, traders assign an 86.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally announced in 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย