The 67.5% market-implied probability for no U.S. bank failure by June 30 largely reflects the Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report, which highlighted historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and funding structures aligned with long-term norms across the banking sector. Two small failures earlier in the year—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust–West Georgia in May—were resolved quickly by the FDIC with minimal systemic impact, consistent with the pattern of isolated, firm-specific events rather than broad stress. With no fresh indicators of deteriorating asset quality or deposit outflows in June data and limited near-term catalysts such as major earnings releases or policy shifts before month-end, trader consensus prices in low near-term resolution risk despite the short window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2026
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The 67.5% market-implied probability for no U.S. bank failure by June 30 largely reflects the Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report, which highlighted historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and funding structures aligned with long-term norms across the banking sector. Two small failures earlier in the year—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust–West Georgia in May—were resolved quickly by the FDIC with minimal systemic impact, consistent with the pattern of isolated, firm-specific events rather than broad stress. With no fresh indicators of deteriorating asset quality or deposit outflows in June data and limited near-term catalysts such as major earnings releases or policy shifts before month-end, trader consensus prices in low near-term resolution risk despite the short window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,063วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The 67.5% market-implied probability for no U.S. bank failure by June 30 largely reflects the Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report, which highlighted historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and funding structures aligned with long-term norms across the banking sector. Two small failures earlier in the year—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust–West Georgia in May—were resolved quickly by the FDIC with minimal systemic impact, consistent with the pattern of isolated, firm-specific events rather than broad stress. With no fresh indicators of deteriorating asset quality or deposit outflows in June data and limited near-term catalysts such as major earnings releases or policy shifts before month-end, trader consensus prices in low near-term resolution risk despite the short window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,202วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 67.5% market-implied probability for no U.S. bank failure by June 30 largely reflects the Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report, which highlighted historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and funding structures aligned with long-term norms across the banking sector. Two small failures earlier in the year—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust–West Georgia in May—were resolved quickly by the FDIC with minimal systemic impact, consistent with the pattern of isolated, firm-specific events rather than broad stress. With no fresh indicators of deteriorating asset quality or deposit outflows in June data and limited near-term catalysts such as major earnings releases or policy shifts before month-end, trader consensus prices in low near-term resolution risk despite the short window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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