Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, combined with July payroll declines and 4.1% unemployment, has tempered expectations while New York Fed nowcasts place Q3 at 2.1–2.2% and Philadelphia Fed surveys project 2.5%. Sticky July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year keeps monetary policy on hold, supporting the closely matched 32% implied probability on ≥3.0% versus 26% on 2.0–2.5%. Traders weigh resilient business investment in AI-driven capex against softening consumer spending and leading-indicator weakness, creating sensitivity to upcoming August employment and inflation releases that could shift the balance between modest expansion and stronger rebound scenarios.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.0–1.5% 7.8%
$18,694 ปริมาณ
$18,694 ปริมาณ
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
21%
≥3.0%
33%
≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.0–1.5% 7.8%
$18,694 ปริมาณ
$18,694 ปริมาณ
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 ปริมาณ
4%
0.5–1.0%
$470 ปริมาณ
4%
1.0–1.5%
$546 ปริมาณ
8%
1.5–2.0%
$599 ปริมาณ
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 ปริมาณ
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,182 ปริมาณ
21%
≥3.0%
$11,393 ปริมาณ
33%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, combined with July payroll declines and 4.1% unemployment, has tempered expectations while New York Fed nowcasts place Q3 at 2.1–2.2% and Philadelphia Fed surveys project 2.5%. Sticky July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year keeps monetary policy on hold, supporting the closely matched 32% implied probability on ≥3.0% versus 26% on 2.0–2.5%. Traders weigh resilient business investment in AI-driven capex against softening consumer spending and leading-indicator weakness, creating sensitivity to upcoming August employment and inflation releases that could shift the balance between modest expansion and stronger rebound scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,694วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, combined with July payroll declines and 4.1% unemployment, has tempered expectations while New York Fed nowcasts place Q3 at 2.1–2.2% and Philadelphia Fed surveys project 2.5%. Sticky July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year keeps monetary policy on hold, supporting the closely matched 32% implied probability on ≥3.0% versus 26% on 2.0–2.5%. Traders weigh resilient business investment in AI-driven capex against softening consumer spending and leading-indicator weakness, creating sensitivity to upcoming August employment and inflation releases that could shift the balance between modest expansion and stronger rebound scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,694วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, combined with July payroll declines and 4.1% unemployment, has tempered expectations while New York Fed nowcasts place Q3 at 2.1–2.2% and Philadelphia Fed surveys project 2.5%. Sticky July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year keeps monetary policy on hold, supporting the closely matched 32% implied probability on ≥3.0% versus 26% on 2.0–2.5%. Traders weigh resilient business investment in AI-driven capex against softening consumer spending and leading-indicator weakness, creating sensitivity to upcoming August employment and inflation releases that could shift the balance between modest expansion and stronger rebound scenarios.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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