U.S. policy has maintained consistent non-recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea since the 2014 annexation, with no recent executive actions, legislative initiatives, or diplomatic signals from the current administration indicating an imminent reversal. This stance aligns with longstanding bipartisan support for Ukraine's territorial integrity and related sanctions frameworks, reinforced by ongoing conflict dynamics and alliance commitments. Traders price the "No" outcome at 96.4% because a formal shift before 2027 would require an abrupt policy pivot unlikely in the remaining months. Late developments such as a comprehensive ceasefire agreement incorporating territorial concessions, or sudden changes in executive priorities, could still alter the trajectory, though these remain low-probability paths under present conditions.