Trader consensus reflects an 80% implied probability against U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, driven by stalled Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations despite Trump administration proposals in April 2025 to include such recognition in a broader deal. Reports from Bloomberg, CNN, and the Washington Post highlighted U.S. openness to de facto acceptance of Crimea's status, but no formal executive action followed amid strong congressional opposition, including the February 2025 Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act (HR1600) and Senator Durbin's May 2025 bill prohibiting acknowledgment of annexed territories. Ukrainian resistance, ongoing battlefield tensions, and a looming June 2026 Trump-imposed negotiation deadline underscore persistent diplomatic and legislative barriers, tempering expectations for a policy shift.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$28,158 ปริมาณ
$28,158 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$28,158 ปริมาณ
$28,158 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects an 80% implied probability against U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, driven by stalled Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations despite Trump administration proposals in April 2025 to include such recognition in a broader deal. Reports from Bloomberg, CNN, and the Washington Post highlighted U.S. openness to de facto acceptance of Crimea's status, but no formal executive action followed amid strong congressional opposition, including the February 2025 Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act (HR1600) and Senator Durbin's May 2025 bill prohibiting acknowledgment of annexed territories. Ukrainian resistance, ongoing battlefield tensions, and a looming June 2026 Trump-imposed negotiation deadline underscore persistent diplomatic and legislative barriers, tempering expectations for a policy shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,158วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects an 80% implied probability against U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, driven by stalled Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations despite Trump administration proposals in April 2025 to include such recognition in a broader deal. Reports from Bloomberg, CNN, and the Washington Post highlighted U.S. openness to de facto acceptance of Crimea's status, but no formal executive action followed amid strong congressional opposition, including the February 2025 Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act (HR1600) and Senator Durbin's May 2025 bill prohibiting acknowledgment of annexed territories. Ukrainian resistance, ongoing battlefield tensions, and a looming June 2026 Trump-imposed negotiation deadline underscore persistent diplomatic and legislative barriers, tempering expectations for a policy shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,158วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 80% implied probability against U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, driven by stalled Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations despite Trump administration proposals in April 2025 to include such recognition in a broader deal. Reports from Bloomberg, CNN, and the Washington Post highlighted U.S. openness to de facto acceptance of Crimea's status, but no formal executive action followed amid strong congressional opposition, including the February 2025 Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act (HR1600) and Senator Durbin's May 2025 bill prohibiting acknowledgment of annexed territories. Ukrainian resistance, ongoing battlefield tensions, and a looming June 2026 Trump-imposed negotiation deadline underscore persistent diplomatic and legislative barriers, tempering expectations for a policy shift.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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