Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith and Republican challenger Doug Basler advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to contest the November 3 general election in the 9th congressional district. The seat’s D+22 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters anchor trader expectations of a Democratic hold. Smith’s long tenure, substantial fundraising advantage, and the absence of competitive primary threats support positioning across Democrat margin buckets clustered near 41 percent. Limited recent polling, absence of major national or local developments capable of shifting voter sentiment, and typical uncertainty around exact turnout patterns keep the various margin and Republican-win options closely aligned in the low-to-mid 40 percent range. Scheduled campaign events or new district-specific surveys before Election Day could alter the distribution among those outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWA-09 House Election Margin of Victory
WA-09 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 40-45% 42%
Democrat 55-60% 42%
Democrat 45-50% 41%
Democrat 60%+ 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 60%+
40%
Democrat 55-60%
42%
Democrat 50-55%
40%
Democrat 45-50%
41%
Democrat 40-45%
42%
Democrat 35-40%
38%
Democrat 30-35%
37%
Democrat 20-30%
40%
Democrat 0-20%
40%
Republican Wins
40%
Democrat 40-45% 42%
Democrat 55-60% 42%
Democrat 45-50% 41%
Democrat 60%+ 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 60%+
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 ปริมาณ
41%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
Democrat 20-30%
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
Democrat 0-20%
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
Republican Wins
$10 ปริมาณ
40%
The 2026 WA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith and Republican challenger Doug Basler advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to contest the November 3 general election in the 9th congressional district. The seat’s D+22 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters anchor trader expectations of a Democratic hold. Smith’s long tenure, substantial fundraising advantage, and the absence of competitive primary threats support positioning across Democrat margin buckets clustered near 41 percent. Limited recent polling, absence of major national or local developments capable of shifting voter sentiment, and typical uncertainty around exact turnout patterns keep the various margin and Republican-win options closely aligned in the low-to-mid 40 percent range. Scheduled campaign events or new district-specific surveys before Election Day could alter the distribution among those outcomes.
The 2026 WA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 WA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith and Republican challenger Doug Basler advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to contest the November 3 general election in the 9th congressional district. The seat’s D+22 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters anchor trader expectations of a Democratic hold. Smith’s long tenure, substantial fundraising advantage, and the absence of competitive primary threats support positioning across Democrat margin buckets clustered near 41 percent. Limited recent polling, absence of major national or local developments capable of shifting voter sentiment, and typical uncertainty around exact turnout patterns keep the various margin and Republican-win options closely aligned in the low-to-mid 40 percent range. Scheduled campaign events or new district-specific surveys before Election Day could alter the distribution among those outcomes.
The 2026 WA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith and Republican challenger Doug Basler advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to contest the November 3 general election in the 9th congressional district. The seat’s D+22 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters anchor trader expectations of a Democratic hold. Smith’s long tenure, substantial fundraising advantage, and the absence of competitive primary threats support positioning across Democrat margin buckets clustered near 41 percent. Limited recent polling, absence of major national or local developments capable of shifting voter sentiment, and typical uncertainty around exact turnout patterns keep the various margin and Republican-win options closely aligned in the low-to-mid 40 percent range. Scheduled campaign events or new district-specific surveys before Election Day could alter the distribution among those outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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