The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August 2026, following only Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and the recently dissipated Cristobal, drives market-implied odds favoring Dolly at 41%. NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes) reflects suppressed activity linked to atmospheric conditions that limit rapid intensification. With peak months ahead, the next named systems—Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Gonzalo—face the highest near-term probability of reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale, especially if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures allow development before later names form. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing regular model updates that traders monitor for shifts in genesis timing and intensity potential.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Dolly 41%
Edouard 25%
Fay 21%
Isaias 7.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
2%
Dolly
41%
Edouard
25%
Fay
17%
Gonzalo
11%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
7%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
3%
Leah
4%
Marco
5%
Nana
5%
Omar
5%
Paulette
5%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
4%
Wilfred
4%
Other
4%
Dolly 41%
Edouard 25%
Fay 21%
Isaias 7.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$1,667 ปริมาณ
2%
Dolly
$383 ปริมาณ
41%
Edouard
$1,073 ปริมาณ
25%
Fay
$514 ปริมาณ
17%
Gonzalo
$472 ปริมาณ
11%
Hanna
$98 ปริมาณ
5%
Isaias
$350 ปริมาณ
7%
Josephine
$55 ปริมาณ
5%
Kyle
$94 ปริมาณ
3%
Leah
$59 ปริมาณ
4%
Marco
$111 ปริมาณ
5%
Nana
$51 ปริมาณ
5%
Omar
$67 ปริมาณ
5%
Paulette
$71 ปริมาณ
5%
Rene
$63 ปริมาณ
5%
Sally
$131 ปริมาณ
3%
Teddy
$63 ปริมาณ
5%
Vicky
$90 ปริมาณ
4%
Wilfred
$118 ปริมาณ
4%
Other
$63 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August 2026, following only Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and the recently dissipated Cristobal, drives market-implied odds favoring Dolly at 41%. NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes) reflects suppressed activity linked to atmospheric conditions that limit rapid intensification. With peak months ahead, the next named systems—Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Gonzalo—face the highest near-term probability of reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale, especially if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures allow development before later names form. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing regular model updates that traders monitor for shifts in genesis timing and intensity potential.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,595วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August 2026, following only Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and the recently dissipated Cristobal, drives market-implied odds favoring Dolly at 41%. NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes) reflects suppressed activity linked to atmospheric conditions that limit rapid intensification. With peak months ahead, the next named systems—Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Gonzalo—face the highest near-term probability of reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale, especially if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures allow development before later names form. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing regular model updates that traders monitor for shifts in genesis timing and intensity potential.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,595วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August 2026, following only Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and the recently dissipated Cristobal, drives market-implied odds favoring Dolly at 41%. NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes) reflects suppressed activity linked to atmospheric conditions that limit rapid intensification. With peak months ahead, the next named systems—Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Gonzalo—face the highest near-term probability of reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale, especially if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures allow development before later names form. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing regular model updates that traders monitor for shifts in genesis timing and intensity potential.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย