Traders have priced Anthropic at a 67% implied probability of leading the AI model frontier by end of June because its latest Claude Opus and Sonnet releases continue to demonstrate superior instruction-following and style consistency on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and LM Arena Elo ratings. These strengths align directly with the market’s style-control emphasis, giving the company an edge in agentic coding and long-context professional tasks where output reliability matters most. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holds second place at 22.5% on the strength of recent gains in GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 reasoning scores, yet it trails in the precise stylistic control that currently sways trader sentiment. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series sits at just 5.5% amid mixed recent benchmark results and expectations of further incremental updates rather than a decisive leap before the resolution date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วแอนโทรปิก 67%
กูเกิล 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,902 ปริมาณ
$1,455,902 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
แอนโทรปิก
67%
กูเกิล
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
ไมโครซอฟท์
1%
อาลีบาบา
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
แอนโทรปิก 67%
กูเกิล 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,902 ปริมาณ
$1,455,902 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
แอนโทรปิก
$30,350 ปริมาณ
67%
กูเกิล
$18,356 ปริมาณ
22%
OpenAI
$49,319 ปริมาณ
6%
xAI
$14,949 ปริมาณ
3%
DeepSeek
$201,120 ปริมาณ
1%
ไมโครซอฟท์
$11,868 ปริมาณ
1%
อาลีบาบา
$136,496 ปริมาณ
1%
Meta
$8,140 ปริมาณ
1%
Z.ai
$412,881 ปริมาณ
1%
Moonshot
$203,349 ปริมาณ
1%
Meituan
$270,689 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$59,334 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$17,641 ปริมาณ
<1%
ByteDance
$12,804 ปริมาณ
<1%
Baidu
$8,606 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have priced Anthropic at a 67% implied probability of leading the AI model frontier by end of June because its latest Claude Opus and Sonnet releases continue to demonstrate superior instruction-following and style consistency on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and LM Arena Elo ratings. These strengths align directly with the market’s style-control emphasis, giving the company an edge in agentic coding and long-context professional tasks where output reliability matters most. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holds second place at 22.5% on the strength of recent gains in GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 reasoning scores, yet it trails in the precise stylistic control that currently sways trader sentiment. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series sits at just 5.5% amid mixed recent benchmark results and expectations of further incremental updates rather than a decisive leap before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,455,902วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have priced Anthropic at a 67% implied probability of leading the AI model frontier by end of June because its latest Claude Opus and Sonnet releases continue to demonstrate superior instruction-following and style consistency on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and LM Arena Elo ratings. These strengths align directly with the market’s style-control emphasis, giving the company an edge in agentic coding and long-context professional tasks where output reliability matters most. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holds second place at 22.5% on the strength of recent gains in GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 reasoning scores, yet it trails in the precise stylistic control that currently sways trader sentiment. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series sits at just 5.5% amid mixed recent benchmark results and expectations of further incremental updates rather than a decisive leap before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,455,902วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have priced Anthropic at a 67% implied probability of leading the AI model frontier by end of June because its latest Claude Opus and Sonnet releases continue to demonstrate superior instruction-following and style consistency on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and LM Arena Elo ratings. These strengths align directly with the market’s style-control emphasis, giving the company an edge in agentic coding and long-context professional tasks where output reliability matters most. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holds second place at 22.5% on the strength of recent gains in GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 reasoning scores, yet it trails in the precise stylistic control that currently sways trader sentiment. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series sits at just 5.5% amid mixed recent benchmark results and expectations of further incremental updates rather than a decisive leap before the resolution date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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