Escalating U.S.-Iran naval confrontations since February 2026, including Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and recent skirmishes involving U.S. guided-missile destroyers, have elevated trader focus on multinational naval deployments by the May 31 deadline. U.S. forces under Project Freedom have already escorted merchant vessels through contested waters amid Iranian missile and drone threats, while the UK has forward-deployed HMS Dragon to support a broader coalition effort. Iran’s explicit warnings to European nations against additional warship transits, coupled with spikes in maritime insurance premiums and tanker charter rates, underscore the market’s pricing of heightened energy-supply risk for a chokepoint handling roughly 20 percent of global oil flows. Upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC commentary on geopolitical inflation risks and any further joint statements from the UK, France, or Japan on freedom-of-navigation operations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
$1,020,082 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
United Kingdom
3%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
<1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
5%
Bahrain
1%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
1%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$1,020,082 ปริมาณ
United Kingdom
$163,154 ปริมาณ
3%
France
$96,116 ปริมาณ
4%
Germany
$172,289 ปริมาณ
1%
Italy
$74,400 ปริมาณ
1%
Netherlands
$51,341 ปริมาณ
1%
Japan
$113,222 ปริมาณ
<1%
Canada
$19,730 ปริมาณ
<1%
India
$7,441 ปริมาณ
2%
Greece
$18,447 ปริมาณ
1%
Pakistan
$11,940 ปริมาณ
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,310 ปริมาณ
2%
UAE
$6,032 ปริมาณ
5%
Bahrain
$19,791 ปริมาณ
1%
Qatar
$5,836 ปริมาณ
<1%
Kuwait
$3,495 ปริมาณ
1%
Oman
$4,506 ปริมาณ
1%
South Korea
$84,246 ปริมาณ
<1%
Australia
$72,142 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating U.S.-Iran naval confrontations since February 2026, including Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and recent skirmishes involving U.S. guided-missile destroyers, have elevated trader focus on multinational naval deployments by the May 31 deadline. U.S. forces under Project Freedom have already escorted merchant vessels through contested waters amid Iranian missile and drone threats, while the UK has forward-deployed HMS Dragon to support a broader coalition effort. Iran’s explicit warnings to European nations against additional warship transits, coupled with spikes in maritime insurance premiums and tanker charter rates, underscore the market’s pricing of heightened energy-supply risk for a chokepoint handling roughly 20 percent of global oil flows. Upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC commentary on geopolitical inflation risks and any further joint statements from the UK, France, or Japan on freedom-of-navigation operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,020,082วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating U.S.-Iran naval confrontations since February 2026, including Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and recent skirmishes involving U.S. guided-missile destroyers, have elevated trader focus on multinational naval deployments by the May 31 deadline. U.S. forces under Project Freedom have already escorted merchant vessels through contested waters amid Iranian missile and drone threats, while the UK has forward-deployed HMS Dragon to support a broader coalition effort. Iran’s explicit warnings to European nations against additional warship transits, coupled with spikes in maritime insurance premiums and tanker charter rates, underscore the market’s pricing of heightened energy-supply risk for a chokepoint handling roughly 20 percent of global oil flows. Upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC commentary on geopolitical inflation risks and any further joint statements from the UK, France, or Japan on freedom-of-navigation operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,020,082วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran naval confrontations since February 2026, including Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and recent skirmishes involving U.S. guided-missile destroyers, have elevated trader focus on multinational naval deployments by the May 31 deadline. U.S. forces under Project Freedom have already escorted merchant vessels through contested waters amid Iranian missile and drone threats, while the UK has forward-deployed HMS Dragon to support a broader coalition effort. Iran’s explicit warnings to European nations against additional warship transits, coupled with spikes in maritime insurance premiums and tanker charter rates, underscore the market’s pricing of heightened energy-supply risk for a chokepoint handling roughly 20 percent of global oil flows. Upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC commentary on geopolitical inflation risks and any further joint statements from the UK, France, or Japan on freedom-of-navigation operations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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