US naval operations under Project Freedom, launched in early May amid Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. The choke point handles roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, and recent US destroyer transits—supported by carrier strike groups, aircraft, and drones—have kept Brent crude prices elevated near $104 per barrel while war-risk insurance premiums for tankers have surged over 600%, sharply curtailing commercial volumes. European nations face explicit Iranian warnings against participation, which has compressed implied probabilities for UK and French warship passages to the low teens. With resolution just days away, any coalition announcements or shifts in ceasefire talks could still alter positioning before the May 31 deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
$1,010,514 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
United Kingdom
3%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
<1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
<1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
4%
Bahrain
1%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
2%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$1,010,514 ปริมาณ
United Kingdom
$162,951 ปริมาณ
3%
France
$96,016 ปริมาณ
4%
Germany
$166,771 ปริมาณ
1%
Italy
$74,400 ปริมาณ
1%
Netherlands
$50,968 ปริมาณ
1%
Japan
$112,820 ปริมาณ
<1%
Canada
$19,730 ปริมาณ
<1%
India
$7,441 ปริมาณ
2%
Greece
$18,404 ปริมาณ
<1%
Pakistan
$11,940 ปริมาณ
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,310 ปริมาณ
2%
UAE
$4,426 ปริมาณ
4%
Bahrain
$19,791 ปริมาณ
1%
Qatar
$5,816 ปริมาณ
<1%
Kuwait
$3,325 ปริมาณ
2%
Oman
$4,506 ปริมาณ
1%
South Korea
$83,114 ปริมาณ
<1%
Australia
$72,142 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations under Project Freedom, launched in early May amid Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. The choke point handles roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, and recent US destroyer transits—supported by carrier strike groups, aircraft, and drones—have kept Brent crude prices elevated near $104 per barrel while war-risk insurance premiums for tankers have surged over 600%, sharply curtailing commercial volumes. European nations face explicit Iranian warnings against participation, which has compressed implied probabilities for UK and French warship passages to the low teens. With resolution just days away, any coalition announcements or shifts in ceasefire talks could still alter positioning before the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,010,514วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations under Project Freedom, launched in early May amid Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. The choke point handles roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, and recent US destroyer transits—supported by carrier strike groups, aircraft, and drones—have kept Brent crude prices elevated near $104 per barrel while war-risk insurance premiums for tankers have surged over 600%, sharply curtailing commercial volumes. European nations face explicit Iranian warnings against participation, which has compressed implied probabilities for UK and French warship passages to the low teens. With resolution just days away, any coalition announcements or shifts in ceasefire talks could still alter positioning before the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,010,514วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US naval operations under Project Freedom, launched in early May amid Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. The choke point handles roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, and recent US destroyer transits—supported by carrier strike groups, aircraft, and drones—have kept Brent crude prices elevated near $104 per barrel while war-risk insurance premiums for tankers have surged over 600%, sharply curtailing commercial volumes. European nations face explicit Iranian warnings against participation, which has compressed implied probabilities for UK and French warship passages to the low teens. With resolution just days away, any coalition announcements or shifts in ceasefire talks could still alter positioning before the May 31 deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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