The trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows "none before 2027" as the leading outcome, indicating expectations of relative stability across the administration in the near term. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the next-highest implied probability, consistent with ongoing scrutiny of his departmental role and policy priorities. Lower probabilities for figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with their positions in key economic and national security portfolios where confirmation and early implementation have proceeded without immediate disruption. Market positioning incorporates factors including Senate dynamics, executive branch priorities, and typical patterns of cabinet turnover in second-term administrations. Scheduled legislative activity and agency milestones through late 2026 remain potential catalysts that could shift individual probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNone before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.4%
$29,025 ปริมาณ
$29,025 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
32%
Chris Wright
5%
Susie Wiles
4%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Scott Bessent
6%
Kelly Loeffler
3%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
None before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.4%
$29,025 ปริมาณ
$29,025 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$5,291 ปริมาณ
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$9,816 ปริมาณ
32%
Chris Wright
$700 ปริมาณ
5%
Susie Wiles
$3,153 ปริมาณ
4%
Pete Hegseth
$929 ปริมาณ
4%
Scott Bessent
$1,103 ปริมาณ
6%
Kelly Loeffler
$746 ปริมาณ
3%
Russell T. Vought
$463 ปริมาณ
2%
Lee Zeldin
$403 ปริมาณ
1%
Marco Rubio
$488 ปริมาณ
1%
Howard Lutnick
$727 ปริมาณ
1%
Sean Duffy
$551 ปริมาณ
1%
J.D. Vance
$476 ปริมาณ
1%
Scott Turner
$341 ปริมาณ
1%
Brooke Rollins
$504 ปริมาณ
1%
Jamieson Greer
$468 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Collins
$487 ปริมาณ
1%
Linda McMahon
$828 ปริมาณ
1%
John Ratcliffe
$507 ปริมาณ
1%
Mike Waltz
$508 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Burgum
$535 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows "none before 2027" as the leading outcome, indicating expectations of relative stability across the administration in the near term. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the next-highest implied probability, consistent with ongoing scrutiny of his departmental role and policy priorities. Lower probabilities for figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with their positions in key economic and national security portfolios where confirmation and early implementation have proceeded without immediate disruption. Market positioning incorporates factors including Senate dynamics, executive branch priorities, and typical patterns of cabinet turnover in second-term administrations. Scheduled legislative activity and agency milestones through late 2026 remain potential catalysts that could shift individual probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,025วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows "none before 2027" as the leading outcome, indicating expectations of relative stability across the administration in the near term. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the next-highest implied probability, consistent with ongoing scrutiny of his departmental role and policy priorities. Lower probabilities for figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with their positions in key economic and national security portfolios where confirmation and early implementation have proceeded without immediate disruption. Market positioning incorporates factors including Senate dynamics, executive branch priorities, and typical patterns of cabinet turnover in second-term administrations. Scheduled legislative activity and agency milestones through late 2026 remain potential catalysts that could shift individual probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,025วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows "none before 2027" as the leading outcome, indicating expectations of relative stability across the administration in the near term. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the next-highest implied probability, consistent with ongoing scrutiny of his departmental role and policy priorities. Lower probabilities for figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with their positions in key economic and national security portfolios where confirmation and early implementation have proceeded without immediate disruption. Market positioning incorporates factors including Senate dynamics, executive branch priorities, and typical patterns of cabinet turnover in second-term administrations. Scheduled legislative activity and agency milestones through late 2026 remain potential catalysts that could shift individual probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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