The near-certain 96.5% market-implied odds on “No” for a U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stem from the climatological fact that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, with May systems historically rare. National Hurricane Center and NOAA records show that only a handful of tropical cyclones have reached hurricane strength before late May in the satellite era, and none have made U.S. landfall after mid-May in recent decades. Current sea-surface temperatures across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico remain below the 26.5 °C threshold typically needed for rapid intensification, while atmospheric conditions lack the organized disturbances or steering patterns required for development. The primary remaining uncertainty is an unusually early tropical wave that could briefly organize; however, NHC model guidance and ensemble runs continue to show negligible probability through the end of the month.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$26,087 ปริมาณ
$26,087 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
$26,087 ปริมาณ
$26,087 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The near-certain 96.5% market-implied odds on “No” for a U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stem from the climatological fact that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, with May systems historically rare. National Hurricane Center and NOAA records show that only a handful of tropical cyclones have reached hurricane strength before late May in the satellite era, and none have made U.S. landfall after mid-May in recent decades. Current sea-surface temperatures across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico remain below the 26.5 °C threshold typically needed for rapid intensification, while atmospheric conditions lack the organized disturbances or steering patterns required for development. The primary remaining uncertainty is an unusually early tropical wave that could briefly organize; however, NHC model guidance and ensemble runs continue to show negligible probability through the end of the month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,087วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The near-certain 96.5% market-implied odds on “No” for a U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stem from the climatological fact that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, with May systems historically rare. National Hurricane Center and NOAA records show that only a handful of tropical cyclones have reached hurricane strength before late May in the satellite era, and none have made U.S. landfall after mid-May in recent decades. Current sea-surface temperatures across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico remain below the 26.5 °C threshold typically needed for rapid intensification, while atmospheric conditions lack the organized disturbances or steering patterns required for development. The primary remaining uncertainty is an unusually early tropical wave that could briefly organize; however, NHC model guidance and ensemble runs continue to show negligible probability through the end of the month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,087วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 96.5% market-implied odds on “No” for a U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stem from the climatological fact that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, with May systems historically rare. National Hurricane Center and NOAA records show that only a handful of tropical cyclones have reached hurricane strength before late May in the satellite era, and none have made U.S. landfall after mid-May in recent decades. Current sea-surface temperatures across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico remain below the 26.5 °C threshold typically needed for rapid intensification, while atmospheric conditions lack the organized disturbances or steering patterns required for development. The primary remaining uncertainty is an unusually early tropical wave that could briefly organize; however, NHC model guidance and ensemble runs continue to show negligible probability through the end of the month.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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