With no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, per National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports, traders price a 94.5% implied probability against a named storm—defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph—forming before the official June 1 start. Mid-May conditions feature unfavorable high wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures below optimal thresholds for genesis, aligning with climatological rarity (fewer than 10% of seasons see pre-season activity). NHC tropical outlooks resume May 15, but models show no development signals. A sudden tropical wave off Africa or Caribbean could challenge this if shear relaxes and organization accelerates unexpectedly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$340,689 ปริมาณ
$340,689 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
$340,689 ปริมาณ
$340,689 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.With no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, per National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports, traders price a 94.5% implied probability against a named storm—defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph—forming before the official June 1 start. Mid-May conditions feature unfavorable high wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures below optimal thresholds for genesis, aligning with climatological rarity (fewer than 10% of seasons see pre-season activity). NHC tropical outlooks resume May 15, but models show no development signals. A sudden tropical wave off Africa or Caribbean could challenge this if shear relaxes and organization accelerates unexpectedly.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$340,689วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.With no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, per National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports, traders price a 94.5% implied probability against a named storm—defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph—forming before the official June 1 start. Mid-May conditions feature unfavorable high wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures below optimal thresholds for genesis, aligning with climatological rarity (fewer than 10% of seasons see pre-season activity). NHC tropical outlooks resume May 15, but models show no development signals. A sudden tropical wave off Africa or Caribbean could challenge this if shear relaxes and organization accelerates unexpectedly.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$340,689วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, per National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports, traders price a 94.5% implied probability against a named storm—defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph—forming before the official June 1 start. Mid-May conditions feature unfavorable high wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures below optimal thresholds for genesis, aligning with climatological rarity (fewer than 10% of seasons see pre-season activity). NHC tropical outlooks resume May 15, but models show no development signals. A sudden tropical wave off Africa or Caribbean could challenge this if shear relaxes and organization accelerates unexpectedly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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