**Recent reductions in overt Chinese military signaling around Taiwan have reinforced trader expectations that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before the June 2027 deadline.** Beijing has conducted significantly fewer aircraft sorties near the island in 2026 and avoided major exercises simulating blockade or landing operations, shifting emphasis to sustained gray-zone activities such as coast guard patrols and diplomatic pressure. International statements, including the G7’s June 2027 reaffirmation of opposition to unilateral status-quo changes and former U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s assessment of prohibitive global costs, have further anchored the consensus. Taiwan’s continued defense modernization and realistic training exercises underscore deterrence without provoking escalation. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 87.5 percent, reflecting the absence of the large-scale force posture or diplomatic rupture typically preceding an invasion attempt.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
$259,722 ปริมาณ
$259,722 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
$259,722 ปริมาณ
$259,722 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Recent reductions in overt Chinese military signaling around Taiwan have reinforced trader expectations that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before the June 2027 deadline.** Beijing has conducted significantly fewer aircraft sorties near the island in 2026 and avoided major exercises simulating blockade or landing operations, shifting emphasis to sustained gray-zone activities such as coast guard patrols and diplomatic pressure. International statements, including the G7’s June 2027 reaffirmation of opposition to unilateral status-quo changes and former U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s assessment of prohibitive global costs, have further anchored the consensus. Taiwan’s continued defense modernization and realistic training exercises underscore deterrence without provoking escalation. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 87.5 percent, reflecting the absence of the large-scale force posture or diplomatic rupture typically preceding an invasion attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$259,722วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Recent reductions in overt Chinese military signaling around Taiwan have reinforced trader expectations that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before the June 2027 deadline.** Beijing has conducted significantly fewer aircraft sorties near the island in 2026 and avoided major exercises simulating blockade or landing operations, shifting emphasis to sustained gray-zone activities such as coast guard patrols and diplomatic pressure. International statements, including the G7’s June 2027 reaffirmation of opposition to unilateral status-quo changes and former U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s assessment of prohibitive global costs, have further anchored the consensus. Taiwan’s continued defense modernization and realistic training exercises underscore deterrence without provoking escalation. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 87.5 percent, reflecting the absence of the large-scale force posture or diplomatic rupture typically preceding an invasion attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$259,722วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent reductions in overt Chinese military signaling around Taiwan have reinforced trader expectations that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before the June 2027 deadline.** Beijing has conducted significantly fewer aircraft sorties near the island in 2026 and avoided major exercises simulating blockade or landing operations, shifting emphasis to sustained gray-zone activities such as coast guard patrols and diplomatic pressure. International statements, including the G7’s June 2027 reaffirmation of opposition to unilateral status-quo changes and former U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s assessment of prohibitive global costs, have further anchored the consensus. Taiwan’s continued defense modernization and realistic training exercises underscore deterrence without provoking escalation. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 87.5 percent, reflecting the absence of the large-scale force posture or diplomatic rupture typically preceding an invasion attempt.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย