Traders assign a 96.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting sustained cross-strait stability and the absence of large-scale mobilization or direct invasion signals in recent months. Economic interdependence, robust Taiwanese and U.S. deterrence measures, and regular diplomatic channels continue to shape assessments. No major military or diplomatic escalations occurred in the past 30 days that would shift these dynamics. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include an unforeseen crisis triggered by leadership decisions, rapid shifts in alliance commitments, or miscalculations during heightened military exercises.