Iranian officials and lawmakers have issued repeated threats and advanced draft legislation to exit the NPT since early 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, expired JCPOA limits, and IAEA inspection disputes. Parliamentary bills introduced in March 2026 and calls for immediate withdrawal in July 2026 tied withdrawal to retaliation or new alliances, yet no formal notification has been delivered to treaty depositaries and no vote has produced binding action. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, traders assign an 85.5% probability to “No” because procedural hurdles, diplomatic isolation risks, and the absence of unified government consensus outweigh rhetorical escalation. Scheduled NPT review processes and potential diplomatic channels further anchor expectations that Iran will retain membership through the window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
15% โอกาส
$367,942 ปริมาณ
$367,942 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
15% โอกาส
$367,942 ปริมาณ
$367,942 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have issued repeated threats and advanced draft legislation to exit the NPT since early 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, expired JCPOA limits, and IAEA inspection disputes. Parliamentary bills introduced in March 2026 and calls for immediate withdrawal in July 2026 tied withdrawal to retaliation or new alliances, yet no formal notification has been delivered to treaty depositaries and no vote has produced binding action. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, traders assign an 85.5% probability to “No” because procedural hurdles, diplomatic isolation risks, and the absence of unified government consensus outweigh rhetorical escalation. Scheduled NPT review processes and potential diplomatic channels further anchor expectations that Iran will retain membership through the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$367,942วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have issued repeated threats and advanced draft legislation to exit the NPT since early 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, expired JCPOA limits, and IAEA inspection disputes. Parliamentary bills introduced in March 2026 and calls for immediate withdrawal in July 2026 tied withdrawal to retaliation or new alliances, yet no formal notification has been delivered to treaty depositaries and no vote has produced binding action. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, traders assign an 85.5% probability to “No” because procedural hurdles, diplomatic isolation risks, and the absence of unified government consensus outweigh rhetorical escalation. Scheduled NPT review processes and potential diplomatic channels further anchor expectations that Iran will retain membership through the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$367,942วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials and lawmakers have issued repeated threats and advanced draft legislation to exit the NPT since early 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, expired JCPOA limits, and IAEA inspection disputes. Parliamentary bills introduced in March 2026 and calls for immediate withdrawal in July 2026 tied withdrawal to retaliation or new alliances, yet no formal notification has been delivered to treaty depositaries and no vote has produced binding action. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, traders assign an 85.5% probability to “No” because procedural hurdles, diplomatic isolation risks, and the absence of unified government consensus outweigh rhetorical escalation. Scheduled NPT review processes and potential diplomatic channels further anchor expectations that Iran will retain membership through the window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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