The high implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 reflects a sustained U.S. campaign of economic coercion, including the January fuel blockade and expanded sanctions, rather than direct military action. Pentagon discussions of contingency options, increased surveillance flights, and carrier presence in the Caribbean have remained at the planning stage through mid-2026, coinciding with ongoing Iran operations and reported bilateral talks. Indictments of Cuban officials and calls for regime change have paired with diplomatic outreach, while Cuba's protests and energy crisis have not triggered escalation. Traders appear to price in the logistical, political, and diplomatic barriers to a full-scale operation before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วสหรัฐฯจะบุกคิวบาในปี 2026 หรือไม่?
สหรัฐฯจะบุกคิวบาในปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,259,410 ปริมาณ
$3,259,410 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
ใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,259,410 ปริมาณ
$3,259,410 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The high implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 reflects a sustained U.S. campaign of economic coercion, including the January fuel blockade and expanded sanctions, rather than direct military action. Pentagon discussions of contingency options, increased surveillance flights, and carrier presence in the Caribbean have remained at the planning stage through mid-2026, coinciding with ongoing Iran operations and reported bilateral talks. Indictments of Cuban officials and calls for regime change have paired with diplomatic outreach, while Cuba's protests and energy crisis have not triggered escalation. Traders appear to price in the logistical, political, and diplomatic barriers to a full-scale operation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,259,410วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The high implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 reflects a sustained U.S. campaign of economic coercion, including the January fuel blockade and expanded sanctions, rather than direct military action. Pentagon discussions of contingency options, increased surveillance flights, and carrier presence in the Caribbean have remained at the planning stage through mid-2026, coinciding with ongoing Iran operations and reported bilateral talks. Indictments of Cuban officials and calls for regime change have paired with diplomatic outreach, while Cuba's protests and energy crisis have not triggered escalation. Traders appear to price in the logistical, political, and diplomatic barriers to a full-scale operation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,259,410วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 reflects a sustained U.S. campaign of economic coercion, including the January fuel blockade and expanded sanctions, rather than direct military action. Pentagon discussions of contingency options, increased surveillance flights, and carrier presence in the Caribbean have remained at the planning stage through mid-2026, coinciding with ongoing Iran operations and reported bilateral talks. Indictments of Cuban officials and calls for regime change have paired with diplomatic outreach, while Cuba's protests and energy crisis have not triggered escalation. Traders appear to price in the logistical, political, and diplomatic barriers to a full-scale operation before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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