Traders assign an 81.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 because senior U.S. military officials have repeatedly stated that no rehearsals or active preparations for seizing the island are underway, despite heightened rhetoric. Recent developments center on expanded sanctions targeting Cuba’s military-linked entities, stepped-up intelligence flights along the coast, and an oil blockade, all framed by the administration as pressure tactics rather than precursors to kinetic action. U.S. forces remain committed to operations in Iran, diverting resources and congressional attention, while a bipartisan war-powers resolution seeks to limit any unauthorized hostilities. Absent troop mobilization, formal congressional authorization, or clear escalation signals within the resolution window, market participants view the situation as continued diplomatic and economic coercion rather than imminent military intervention.