Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading challenger Rep. Seth Moulton by 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, reinforcing trader consensus around Markey victory margins of 15–35 points as leading outcomes. The Boston Globe’s endorsement of Moulton and an upcoming televised debate introduce variables that could narrow the gap or sustain uncertainty captured in the elevated “Other” pricing. Markey’s incumbency and established support among progressive voters contrast with Moulton’s generational and age-limit messaging, while undecided voters have declined in successive surveys. These dynamics tie directly to the current distribution of implied probabilities across listed margins.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMassachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Markey 25–30% 42%
Markey 15–20% 38%
Markey 20–25% 36%
Markey 5–10% 30%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
Markey 40%+
23%
Markey 35–40%
22%
Markey 30–35%
29%
Markey 25–30%
42%
Markey 20–25%
36%
Markey 15–20%
38%
Markey 10–15%
28%
Markey 5–10%
30%
Markey <5%
21%
Moulton <5%
27%
Moulton 5%+
10%
Markey 25–30% 42%
Markey 15–20% 38%
Markey 20–25% 36%
Markey 5–10% 30%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
Markey 40%+
$16 ปริมาณ
23%
Markey 35–40%
$16 ปริมาณ
22%
Markey 30–35%
$16 ปริมาณ
29%
Markey 25–30%
$16 ปริมาณ
42%
Markey 20–25%
$16 ปริมาณ
36%
Markey 15–20%
$16 ปริมาณ
38%
Markey 10–15%
$16 ปริมาณ
28%
Markey 5–10%
$16 ปริมาณ
30%
Markey <5%
$16 ปริมาณ
21%
Moulton <5%
$16 ปริมาณ
27%
Moulton 5%+
$101 ปริมาณ
10%
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading challenger Rep. Seth Moulton by 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, reinforcing trader consensus around Markey victory margins of 15–35 points as leading outcomes. The Boston Globe’s endorsement of Moulton and an upcoming televised debate introduce variables that could narrow the gap or sustain uncertainty captured in the elevated “Other” pricing. Markey’s incumbency and established support among progressive voters contrast with Moulton’s generational and age-limit messaging, while undecided voters have declined in successive surveys. These dynamics tie directly to the current distribution of implied probabilities across listed margins.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$261วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading challenger Rep. Seth Moulton by 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, reinforcing trader consensus around Markey victory margins of 15–35 points as leading outcomes. The Boston Globe’s endorsement of Moulton and an upcoming televised debate introduce variables that could narrow the gap or sustain uncertainty captured in the elevated “Other” pricing. Markey’s incumbency and established support among progressive voters contrast with Moulton’s generational and age-limit messaging, while undecided voters have declined in successive surveys. These dynamics tie directly to the current distribution of implied probabilities across listed margins.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$261วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading challenger Rep. Seth Moulton by 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, reinforcing trader consensus around Markey victory margins of 15–35 points as leading outcomes. The Boston Globe’s endorsement of Moulton and an upcoming televised debate introduce variables that could narrow the gap or sustain uncertainty captured in the elevated “Other” pricing. Markey’s incumbency and established support among progressive voters contrast with Moulton’s generational and age-limit messaging, while undecided voters have declined in successive surveys. These dynamics tie directly to the current distribution of implied probabilities across listed margins.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย