Traders assign a 98.4% implied probability that the Department of Education will not be eliminated before 2027 because full abolition requires congressional legislation to repeal the department’s authorizing statute, rather than unilateral executive action. Even with unified Republican government following the 2024 elections, competing legislative priorities, Senate procedural thresholds, and internal party divisions over education policy have limited momentum for a standalone bill. Historical precedent shows repeated proposals to dismantle or restructure the department have stalled in Congress. Remaining pathways for change include targeted executive orders on funding formulas, regulatory rollbacks, or program transfers, none of which meet the market’s definition of ending the department. Late-session reconciliation attempts or shifts in House and Senate majorities before the 2026 midterms represent the narrowest scenarios that could still alter the outcome.