The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District has drawn strong Democratic positioning in forecaster ratings, with Cook Political Report classifying it Leans Democratic as of late October 2026. Democrat Amish Shah, a former state representative and emergency physician who narrowly lost the 2024 general election in the district, leads Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker endorsed by President Trump. A recent head-to-head poll showed Shah ahead by two points, while models project a Democratic margin of roughly four to six points. Heavy outside spending by both parties, early voting underway, and the district’s recent narrow partisan swings have shaped trader assessments, producing consensus probabilities that align closely with these indicators.