Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid soft domestic demand, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued consumption, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% range. Resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing continue to provide offset, while full-year official targets of 4.5-5% and consensus forecasts near 4.5% support the close contest between the leading outcomes. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over the pace of potential fiscal stimulus and counter-cyclical measures ahead of the October data release, with structural imbalances limiting clearer momentum.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 39%
4.0-4.3% 13.6%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,934 Vol.
$26,934 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
14%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
39%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 39%
4.0-4.3% 13.6%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,934 Vol.
$26,934 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$952 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,752 Vol.
14%
4.3-4.6%
$10,019 Vol.
49%
4.6-4.9%
$8,056 Vol.
39%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 Vol.
2%
5.2-5.5%
$899 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,040 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid soft domestic demand, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued consumption, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% range. Resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing continue to provide offset, while full-year official targets of 4.5-5% and consensus forecasts near 4.5% support the close contest between the leading outcomes. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over the pace of potential fiscal stimulus and counter-cyclical measures ahead of the October data release, with structural imbalances limiting clearer momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$26,934Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid soft domestic demand, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued consumption, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% range. Resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing continue to provide offset, while full-year official targets of 4.5-5% and consensus forecasts near 4.5% support the close contest between the leading outcomes. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over the pace of potential fiscal stimulus and counter-cyclical measures ahead of the October data release, with structural imbalances limiting clearer momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$26,934Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid soft domestic demand, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued consumption, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% range. Resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing continue to provide offset, while full-year official targets of 4.5-5% and consensus forecasts near 4.5% support the close contest between the leading outcomes. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over the pace of potential fiscal stimulus and counter-cyclical measures ahead of the October data release, with structural imbalances limiting clearer momentum.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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