Cepeda’s commanding position in recent polls, typically in the mid-30s to low-40s percent, has solidified trader expectations that the Pacto Histórico candidate will advance from the May 31 first round. The conservative vote remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, with Espriella holding a narrow lead in April surveys from Invamer, Guarumo, and GAD3, pushing the probability of that pairing to 77.5 percent. Valencia’s earlier gains have stalled, leaving her at roughly 19-22 percent and reducing her odds of reaching the runoff to 14 percent. Low chances of an outright majority keep the outright-winner market at just 11.5 percent, while the absence of major late shifts in candidate positioning or new polling has kept the current odds stable.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateColombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 77%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 14%
1st Round Outright Winner 12%
Other 3.7%
BAGO
BAGO
May 31, 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
77%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
14%
1st Round Outright Winner
12%
Other
4%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
<1%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 77%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 14%
1st Round Outright Winner 12%
Other 3.7%
BAGO
BAGO
May 31, 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
$1,423 Vol.
77%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
$881 Vol.
14%
1st Round Outright Winner
$529 Vol.
12%
Other
$389 Vol.
4%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
$596 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Cepeda’s commanding position in recent polls, typically in the mid-30s to low-40s percent, has solidified trader expectations that the Pacto Histórico candidate will advance from the May 31 first round. The conservative vote remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, with Espriella holding a narrow lead in April surveys from Invamer, Guarumo, and GAD3, pushing the probability of that pairing to 77.5 percent. Valencia’s earlier gains have stalled, leaving her at roughly 19-22 percent and reducing her odds of reaching the runoff to 14 percent. Low chances of an outright majority keep the outright-winner market at just 11.5 percent, while the absence of major late shifts in candidate positioning or new polling has kept the current odds stable.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Binuksan ang Market: May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$3,820Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Cepeda’s commanding position in recent polls, typically in the mid-30s to low-40s percent, has solidified trader expectations that the Pacto Histórico candidate will advance from the May 31 first round. The conservative vote remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, with Espriella holding a narrow lead in April surveys from Invamer, Guarumo, and GAD3, pushing the probability of that pairing to 77.5 percent. Valencia’s earlier gains have stalled, leaving her at roughly 19-22 percent and reducing her odds of reaching the runoff to 14 percent. Low chances of an outright majority keep the outright-winner market at just 11.5 percent, while the absence of major late shifts in candidate positioning or new polling has kept the current odds stable.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$3,820Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cepeda’s commanding position in recent polls, typically in the mid-30s to low-40s percent, has solidified trader expectations that the Pacto Histórico candidate will advance from the May 31 first round. The conservative vote remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, with Espriella holding a narrow lead in April surveys from Invamer, Guarumo, and GAD3, pushing the probability of that pairing to 77.5 percent. Valencia’s earlier gains have stalled, leaving her at roughly 19-22 percent and reducing her odds of reaching the runoff to 14 percent. Low chances of an outright majority keep the outright-winner market at just 11.5 percent, while the absence of major late shifts in candidate positioning or new polling has kept the current odds stable.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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