Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability of winning Colombia's 2026 presidential election, closely trailed by right-wing independent Abelardo de la Espriella (43.5%) and left-wing Pacto Histórico candidate Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%), reflecting a tight three-way contest for first-round leadership on May 31 and potential June 21 runoff advancement. Recent polls like Génesis Crea (May 4-11) show Cepeda leading first-round voting intention at 35%, with de la Espriella at 22% and Paloma Valencia at 25%, but fragmented right-wing support and undecided voters (over 20% in averages) keep probabilities compressed. Surging security concerns from FARC dissident violence and post-March parliamentary fragmentation amplify volatility; endorsements, candidate withdrawals, or turnout surges among key blocs could separate frontrunners before polls close.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHalalan sa Pagkapangulo ng Colombia
Halalan sa Pagkapangulo ng Colombia
Abelardo de la Espriella 44%
Iván Cepeda Castro 40%
Paloma Valencia 18.3%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%
$28,998,568 Vol.
$28,998,568 Vol.

Abelardo de la Espriella
44%

Iván Cepeda Castro
40%

Paloma Valencia
18%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)
<1%

Claudia López (IND)
<1%

Sergio Fajardo (DC)
<1%

Roy Barreras
<1%

Carlos Felipe Córdoba
<1%

Vicky Dávila (IND)
<1%

David Luna Sánchez (IND)
<1%

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)
<1%

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)
<1%

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)
<1%

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)
<1%

Mauricio Cárdenas
<1%

Daniel Quintero
<1%

Enrique Peñalosa
<1%

Juan Carlos Pinzón
<1%
Abelardo de la Espriella 44%
Iván Cepeda Castro 40%
Paloma Valencia 18.3%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%
$28,998,568 Vol.
$28,998,568 Vol.

Abelardo de la Espriella
44%

Iván Cepeda Castro
40%

Paloma Valencia
18%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)
<1%

Claudia López (IND)
<1%

Sergio Fajardo (DC)
<1%

Roy Barreras
<1%

Carlos Felipe Córdoba
<1%

Vicky Dávila (IND)
<1%

David Luna Sánchez (IND)
<1%

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)
<1%

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)
<1%

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)
<1%

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)
<1%

Mauricio Cárdenas
<1%

Daniel Quintero
<1%

Enrique Peñalosa
<1%

Juan Carlos Pinzón
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability of winning Colombia's 2026 presidential election, closely trailed by right-wing independent Abelardo de la Espriella (43.5%) and left-wing Pacto Histórico candidate Iván Cepeda Castro (39.5%), reflecting a tight three-way contest for first-round leadership on May 31 and potential June 21 runoff advancement. Recent polls like Génesis Crea (May 4-11) show Cepeda leading first-round voting intention at 35%, with de la Espriella at 22% and Paloma Valencia at 25%, but fragmented right-wing support and undecided voters (over 20% in averages) keep probabilities compressed. Surging security concerns from FARC dissident violence and post-March parliamentary fragmentation amplify volatility; endorsements, candidate withdrawals, or turnout surges among key blocs could separate frontrunners before polls close.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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