United Russia’s commanding position in the 340–354 seat range stems from its dominant performance in the September 18–20 State Duma elections, where it captured roughly 58% of the party-list vote and led in more than 200 of 225 single-member districts. This result, the first parliamentary vote since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, produced a constitutional majority well above the 301-seat threshold while systemic opposition parties remained fragmented and compliant. Traders’ strong consensus on the mid-300s range incorporates expectations of final seat redistribution among parties clearing the 5% threshold and any modest post-election adjustments typical in prior cycles. Scenarios that could shift the total include further changes in the official count scheduled for release later this week or challenges to individual district mandates.