Lebanon’s parliamentary elections remain highly uncertain amid an extended mandate to 2028, recent proposals to shorten the term for early polls, and ongoing debates over the electoral law and expatriate voting. The confessional system and shifting district-level alliances fragment support, with the Amal-Hezbollah Shiite bloc holding relative stability while Christian and sovereignist forces like the Lebanese Forces test new coalitions with parties such as Kataeb and the Progressive Socialist Party. Regional developments, including tensions over state monopoly on arms and post-ceasefire diplomacy, further complicate consolidation behind any single list. Traders reflect this wide field by assigning negligible implied probabilities to all named contenders, underscoring how unresolved timing, alliance negotiations, and external pressures prevent any party from emerging as a clear leader.