Recent polling trends position Iván Cepeda as the clear first-round leader with 35–44% support, backed by the Historic Pact and outgoing President Petro’s political machinery, yet consistently short of the 50% threshold required to avoid a June 21 runoff. This leaves the contest for second place between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia as the decisive factor, with de la Espriella maintaining a consistent polling advantage of several points among conservative voters. Recent surveys, including those from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo, show the right-wing vote split between de la Espriella’s outsider appeal and Valencia’s institutional Uribista base, keeping outright victory for any candidate at low probability. Late developments, such as public criticism of de la Espriella’s remarks, have not yet shifted the aggregate polling edge that underpins the current market consensus.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateColombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 81%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 12%
1st Round Outright Winner 4.5%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%
BAGO
BAGO
May 31, 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
81%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
12%
1st Round Outright Winner
5%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
<1%
Other
<1%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 81%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 12%
1st Round Outright Winner 4.5%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%
BAGO
BAGO
May 31, 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
$3,172 Vol.
81%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
$2,213 Vol.
12%
1st Round Outright Winner
$1,351 Vol.
5%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
$1,082 Vol.
<1%
Other
$966 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling trends position Iván Cepeda as the clear first-round leader with 35–44% support, backed by the Historic Pact and outgoing President Petro’s political machinery, yet consistently short of the 50% threshold required to avoid a June 21 runoff. This leaves the contest for second place between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia as the decisive factor, with de la Espriella maintaining a consistent polling advantage of several points among conservative voters. Recent surveys, including those from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo, show the right-wing vote split between de la Espriella’s outsider appeal and Valencia’s institutional Uribista base, keeping outright victory for any candidate at low probability. Late developments, such as public criticism of de la Espriella’s remarks, have not yet shifted the aggregate polling edge that underpins the current market consensus.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Binuksan ang Market: May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$8,684Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling trends position Iván Cepeda as the clear first-round leader with 35–44% support, backed by the Historic Pact and outgoing President Petro’s political machinery, yet consistently short of the 50% threshold required to avoid a June 21 runoff. This leaves the contest for second place between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia as the decisive factor, with de la Espriella maintaining a consistent polling advantage of several points among conservative voters. Recent surveys, including those from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo, show the right-wing vote split between de la Espriella’s outsider appeal and Valencia’s institutional Uribista base, keeping outright victory for any candidate at low probability. Late developments, such as public criticism of de la Espriella’s remarks, have not yet shifted the aggregate polling edge that underpins the current market consensus.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$8,684Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling trends position Iván Cepeda as the clear first-round leader with 35–44% support, backed by the Historic Pact and outgoing President Petro’s political machinery, yet consistently short of the 50% threshold required to avoid a June 21 runoff. This leaves the contest for second place between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia as the decisive factor, with de la Espriella maintaining a consistent polling advantage of several points among conservative voters. Recent surveys, including those from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo, show the right-wing vote split between de la Espriella’s outsider appeal and Valencia’s institutional Uribista base, keeping outright victory for any candidate at low probability. Late developments, such as public criticism of de la Espriella’s remarks, have not yet shifted the aggregate polling edge that underpins the current market consensus.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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