Recent developments, including Hungary’s September 8 expulsion of ten Russian diplomats for activities deemed incompatible with the Vienna Convention, reflect continued EU member-state responses to suspected intelligence operations and hybrid threats. Similar targeted actions occurred earlier in 2026 in Austria and Germany, often tied to espionage concerns or sabotage plots. These steps have not extended to ambassadors themselves, as governments have preserved formal diplomatic channels and reciprocity norms amid broader sanctions and security coordination. Poland’s calls for further reductions in Russian diplomatic staff and EU efforts to cap mission sizes in Brussels underscore ongoing pressure, yet no verified reports indicate imminent ambassador-level expulsions before year-end. Trader pricing at 58.5% for “No” aligns with this pattern of calibrated, non-breakthrough measures rather than escalatory severing of top-level representation.