Current forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a frontal system bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms to Busan on October 13, with daytime highs expected near 22–23°C amid elevated humidity and southwesterly winds shifting northwest. This pattern supports the market's strong 50% implied probability on a daily maximum of 20°C or below, as precipitation and cloud cover typically suppress peak temperatures relative to the late-October climatological average of roughly 22°C. Warmer outcomes above 24°C carry lower odds due to limited warming potential before the cooler air mass arrives, while model consensus on timing and intensity remains the key variable ahead of final resolution. Updated runs from KMA and ensemble guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.