Recent short-range model consensus from sources including the GFS and Met Office points to a highest temperature near 11–12°C in Warsaw on October 13 under mostly cloudy skies with light westerly flow and minimal precipitation. This autumnal pattern, typical for mid-October when solar angles are declining and Atlantic air masses dominate, keeps daytime maxima well below recent warmer anomalies while preventing sharp cooling. The closely bunched market-implied odds around 10–12°C reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing, with traders assigning roughly equal weight to small forecast shifts that could push the daily maximum one degree either way. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.