Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging oil prices have driven a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 5-year note trading near 4.54% as of September 2, up from the mid-4.3% range in late August. Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh highlighting persistent inflation and limited progress toward the 2% target have reinforced market expectations for a potential 25 basis point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 64% odds. Sticky core inflation readings around 2.5% year-over-year and resilient wage growth contrast with softer July employment data, creating mixed signals for monetary policy. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 4 jobs report, additional inflation releases, and the FOMC decision, all of which could shift rate path expectations and influence the 5-year yield's monthly low.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
BAGO
Sep 30, 2026
Below 4.52%
50%
Below 4.49%
51%
Below 4.46%
51%
Below 4.43%
50%
Below 4.40%
50%
Below 4.37%
50%
Below 4.32%
50%
Below 4.27%
49%
Below 4.20%
49%
$0.00 Vol.
Below 4.52%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.49%
$0 Vol.
51%
Below 4.46%
$0 Vol.
51%
Below 4.43%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.40%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.37%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.32%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.27%
$0 Vol.
49%
Below 4.20%
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging oil prices have driven a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 5-year note trading near 4.54% as of September 2, up from the mid-4.3% range in late August. Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh highlighting persistent inflation and limited progress toward the 2% target have reinforced market expectations for a potential 25 basis point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 64% odds. Sticky core inflation readings around 2.5% year-over-year and resilient wage growth contrast with softer July employment data, creating mixed signals for monetary policy. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 4 jobs report, additional inflation releases, and the FOMC decision, all of which could shift rate path expectations and influence the 5-year yield's monthly low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging oil prices have driven a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 5-year note trading near 4.54% as of September 2, up from the mid-4.3% range in late August. Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh highlighting persistent inflation and limited progress toward the 2% target have reinforced market expectations for a potential 25 basis point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 64% odds. Sticky core inflation readings around 2.5% year-over-year and resilient wage growth contrast with softer July employment data, creating mixed signals for monetary policy. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 4 jobs report, additional inflation releases, and the FOMC decision, all of which could shift rate path expectations and influence the 5-year yield's monthly low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging oil prices have driven a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 5-year note trading near 4.54% as of September 2, up from the mid-4.3% range in late August. Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh highlighting persistent inflation and limited progress toward the 2% target have reinforced market expectations for a potential 25 basis point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 64% odds. Sticky core inflation readings around 2.5% year-over-year and resilient wage growth contrast with softer July employment data, creating mixed signals for monetary policy. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 4 jobs report, additional inflation releases, and the FOMC decision, all of which could shift rate path expectations and influence the 5-year yield's monthly low.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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