Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate supporting roughly 10–20 events per week worldwide, based on long-term catalogs of approximately 1,900 M5+ quakes annually and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution that places M5.5+ counts well above the 13-event threshold in most intervals. Recent activity in mid-August 2026, including multiple M7+ events in Indonesia and Colombia plus clusters of M5.5–6.9 aftershocks, reinforced this baseline. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for >13 reflects this established frequency and the low likelihood of an extreme quiet period over a full seven-day window. A realistic challenge would require an unusually prolonged global lull lasting most of the week, an outcome that remains statistically rare even during documented low-activity stretches.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
>13 100.0%
≤6 <1%
7 <1%
8 <1%
$43,878 Vol.
$43,878 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
<1%
7
<1%
8
<1%
9
<1%
10
<1%
11
<1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
>13
100%
>13 100.0%
≤6 <1%
7 <1%
8 <1%
$43,878 Vol.
$43,878 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
$8,146 Vol.
<1%
7
$1,403 Vol.
<1%
8
$1,087 Vol.
<1%
9
$1,684 Vol.
<1%
10
$1,366 Vol.
<1%
11
$2,918 Vol.
<1%
12
$4,403 Vol.
<1%
13
$5,250 Vol.
<1%
>13
$17,620 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate supporting roughly 10–20 events per week worldwide, based on long-term catalogs of approximately 1,900 M5+ quakes annually and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution that places M5.5+ counts well above the 13-event threshold in most intervals. Recent activity in mid-August 2026, including multiple M7+ events in Indonesia and Colombia plus clusters of M5.5–6.9 aftershocks, reinforced this baseline. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for >13 reflects this established frequency and the low likelihood of an extreme quiet period over a full seven-day window. A realistic challenge would require an unusually prolonged global lull lasting most of the week, an outcome that remains statistically rare even during documented low-activity stretches.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$43,878Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate supporting roughly 10–20 events per week worldwide, based on long-term catalogs of approximately 1,900 M5+ quakes annually and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution that places M5.5+ counts well above the 13-event threshold in most intervals. Recent activity in mid-August 2026, including multiple M7+ events in Indonesia and Colombia plus clusters of M5.5–6.9 aftershocks, reinforced this baseline. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for >13 reflects this established frequency and the low likelihood of an extreme quiet period over a full seven-day window. A realistic challenge would require an unusually prolonged global lull lasting most of the week, an outcome that remains statistically rare even during documented low-activity stretches.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$43,878Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate supporting roughly 10–20 events per week worldwide, based on long-term catalogs of approximately 1,900 M5+ quakes annually and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution that places M5.5+ counts well above the 13-event threshold in most intervals. Recent activity in mid-August 2026, including multiple M7+ events in Indonesia and Colombia plus clusters of M5.5–6.9 aftershocks, reinforced this baseline. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for >13 reflects this established frequency and the low likelihood of an extreme quiet period over a full seven-day window. A realistic challenge would require an unusually prolonged global lull lasting most of the week, an outcome that remains statistically rare even during documented low-activity stretches.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateKaugnay
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
22%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
92%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
41%
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