Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 15 per year, making weeks with zero or one event the most common outcome and aligning with the market's leading 47% implied probability for zero events during August 3-9. No active foreshock sequences, volcanic alerts, or elevated strain indicators have been reported in major tectonic zones as of early August 2026, reducing the near-term likelihood of clustering. Traders weigh historical patterns along subduction zones and transform faults against the inherent unpredictability of rupture timing, with continuous USGS data releases expected to refine probabilities through the week.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 4%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 10, 2026
0
47%
1
31%
2
18%
3
4%
4
2%
5
1%
>5
1%
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 4%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 10, 2026
0
$1,060 Vol.
47%
1
$205 Vol.
31%
2
$92 Vol.
18%
3
$77 Vol.
4%
4
$126 Vol.
2%
5
$134 Vol.
1%
>5
$91 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 15 per year, making weeks with zero or one event the most common outcome and aligning with the market's leading 47% implied probability for zero events during August 3-9. No active foreshock sequences, volcanic alerts, or elevated strain indicators have been reported in major tectonic zones as of early August 2026, reducing the near-term likelihood of clustering. Traders weigh historical patterns along subduction zones and transform faults against the inherent unpredictability of rupture timing, with continuous USGS data releases expected to refine probabilities through the week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$1,785Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 15 per year, making weeks with zero or one event the most common outcome and aligning with the market's leading 47% implied probability for zero events during August 3-9. No active foreshock sequences, volcanic alerts, or elevated strain indicators have been reported in major tectonic zones as of early August 2026, reducing the near-term likelihood of clustering. Traders weigh historical patterns along subduction zones and transform faults against the inherent unpredictability of rupture timing, with continuous USGS data releases expected to refine probabilities through the week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,785Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 15 per year, making weeks with zero or one event the most common outcome and aligning with the market's leading 47% implied probability for zero events during August 3-9. No active foreshock sequences, volcanic alerts, or elevated strain indicators have been reported in major tectonic zones as of early August 2026, reducing the near-term likelihood of clustering. Traders weigh historical patterns along subduction zones and transform faults against the inherent unpredictability of rupture timing, with continuous USGS data releases expected to refine probabilities through the week.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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