**Trader sentiment strongly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 95% implied probability.** USGS and EMSC catalogs record a single qualifying event: a magnitude 6.5 quake on September 17 at ~98–111 km depth, 169 km west of Nikolski, Alaska, in the Aleutian region. A magnitude 6.4 event struck Papua New Guinea on September 20 near Kainantu at 104 km depth, falling below the threshold, while no other events reached 6.5 during the window. This aligns with typical global rates of roughly one to two M6.5+ quakes per week and the absence of major aftershock sequences or swarm activity in high-seismicity zones. Market positioning reflects verified observational data from authoritative seismic networks rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official magnitude revision of the Papua New Guinea event to 6.5 or higher, confirmation of an unreported or newly cataloged event, or downward revision of the Alaska quake below threshold—outcomes that remain possible but uncommon once preliminary magnitudes stabilize.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
1 95%
2 5.8%
3 2.6%
4 1.1%
$14,429 Vol.
$14,429 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
0
1%
1
95%
2
6%
3
3%
4
1%
5
1%
more than 5
1%
1 95%
2 5.8%
3 2.6%
4 1.1%
$14,429 Vol.
$14,429 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
0
$5,878 Vol.
1%
1
$4,481 Vol.
95%
2
$2,689 Vol.
6%
3
$328 Vol.
3%
4
$241 Vol.
1%
5
$467 Vol.
1%
more than 5
$344 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader sentiment strongly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 95% implied probability.**
USGS and EMSC catalogs record a single qualifying event: a magnitude 6.5 quake on September 17 at ~98–111 km depth, 169 km west of Nikolski, Alaska, in the Aleutian region. A magnitude 6.4 event struck Papua New Guinea on September 20 near Kainantu at 104 km depth, falling below the threshold, while no other events reached 6.5 during the window. This aligns with typical global rates of roughly one to two M6.5+ quakes per week and the absence of major aftershock sequences or swarm activity in high-seismicity zones.
Market positioning reflects verified observational data from authoritative seismic networks rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official magnitude revision of the Papua New Guinea event to 6.5 or higher, confirmation of an unreported or newly cataloged event, or downward revision of the Alaska quake below threshold—outcomes that remain possible but uncommon once preliminary magnitudes stabilize.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$14,429Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 21, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader sentiment strongly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 95% implied probability.**
USGS and EMSC catalogs record a single qualifying event: a magnitude 6.5 quake on September 17 at ~98–111 km depth, 169 km west of Nikolski, Alaska, in the Aleutian region. A magnitude 6.4 event struck Papua New Guinea on September 20 near Kainantu at 104 km depth, falling below the threshold, while no other events reached 6.5 during the window. This aligns with typical global rates of roughly one to two M6.5+ quakes per week and the absence of major aftershock sequences or swarm activity in high-seismicity zones.
Market positioning reflects verified observational data from authoritative seismic networks rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official magnitude revision of the Papua New Guinea event to 6.5 or higher, confirmation of an unreported or newly cataloged event, or downward revision of the Alaska quake below threshold—outcomes that remain possible but uncommon once preliminary magnitudes stabilize.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$14,429Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 21, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment strongly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 95% implied probability.** USGS and EMSC catalogs record a single qualifying event: a magnitude 6.5 quake on September 17 at ~98–111 km depth, 169 km west of Nikolski, Alaska, in the Aleutian region. A magnitude 6.4 event struck Papua New Guinea on September 20 near Kainantu at 104 km depth, falling below the threshold, while no other events reached 6.5 during the window. This aligns with typical global rates of roughly one to two M6.5+ quakes per week and the absence of major aftershock sequences or swarm activity in high-seismicity zones. Market positioning reflects verified observational data from authoritative seismic networks rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official magnitude revision of the Papua New Guinea event to 6.5 or higher, confirmation of an unreported or newly cataloged event, or downward revision of the Alaska quake below threshold—outcomes that remain possible but uncommon once preliminary magnitudes stabilize.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong