Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts feature two safe Democratic seats and a cluster of Republican-leaning districts, leaving the outcome largely dependent on the single competitive race in the 3rd District. There, Democrat Rebecca Cooke challenges incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden in a contest rated as a toss-up or slight Democratic lean by forecasters, with recent polling averages near even and Democratic-leaning models projecting a narrow Cooke edge. This positions a net gain of one seat—yielding three total Democratic wins—as the consensus outcome among traders. The remaining districts show limited movement, with Republican incumbents in the 1st and others holding structural advantages that make additional flips or losses less probable absent major national shifts. Ongoing legal challenges to the congressional maps remain unresolved for the 2026 cycle and have not yet altered district lines.