US counter-narcotics operations in the Caribbean, including strikes on vessels linked to groups such as the ELN, combined with expanded bilateral military cooperation, form the main drivers behind the 23% trader-implied probability of a qualifying US strike on Colombian soil by December 31. Joint exercises like Southern Vanguard, US provision of MQ-9 Reaper drones and training support, and intelligence sharing with Colombia and Venezuela have intensified pressure on trafficking networks near the border. Recent ELN drone attacks on Colombian bases and high-level US visits underscore ongoing escalation risks in the region. Structural factors, including Colombia’s sovereign territory rules, preference for maritime interdiction over land strikes, and diplomatic coordination, continue to limit near-term odds of a confirmed ground impact. Scheduled training and policy deadlines through November could influence developments before year-end.